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The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is consolidating around the July high of approximately $80.60, attempting to break and hold above the 50-day EMA.
The rise in oil prices is attributed to increasing fears of a blockade of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz amid a recent round of military strikes by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) against Iran. The operation was focused on dozens of military assets along the Iranian coast and in the Strait of Hormuz—a key maritime artery through which nearly 20% of the world's energy flows. In coordinated attacks, U.S. fighter jets, drones, and naval forces used precision munitions against Iranian missile installations and drones.
U.S. President Donald Trump previously threatened to continue military actions following the renewal of the American blockade on Tehran in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. This escalation of tensions between Washington and Tehran has directly supported the oil market, adding concerns about global supplies. These disputes introduce a new wave of uncertainty into the energy markets, especially given that producers in the Persian Gulf had only recently begun to restore exports following a temporary peace agreement.
Against this backdrop, lower-than-expected inflation figures in the U.S. provided additional support to the market, fueling hopes for a less stringent monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. In June, the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. fell to 3.5%, a sharp reaction from May's three-year high of 4.2% and significantly below the market consensus of 3.8%. Month-on-month, the overall CPI decreased by 0.4%, a significant change from the 0.5% increase observed in May. This slightly weakened the dollar.
From a technical perspective, the price consolidation at the monthly high indicates a readiness for further growth. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved into positive territory, supporting the bulls. The nearest support is at the round level of $78.00 and slightly above it at $78.25. Resistance is provided by the 50-day EMA and the $80.60 level.
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