Anuluj 
Warunki handlowe
Narzędzia
The GBP/USD currency pair also traded quite calmly on Monday, which is not surprising, as there were no macroeconomic or fundamental events on that day. Over the past three weeks, the British currency has risen by 400 points, and most experts are not even addressing the British pound in their analysis because they cannot explain why the pound has risen sharply while the euro has essentially remained stagnant. We believe that the British currency has displayed completely logical movement, and it is the euro that is trading illogically at the moment. Consider this: the market has priced in a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year while ignoring the June tightening by the European Central Bank. For several months, the market bought dollars amidst the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and when the conflict ended (as it turned out, temporarily), it continued to buy dollars. Therefore, any rise in the European currency (as well as the British pound) would seem logical and justified. Thus, if any currency is currently trading illogically, it is the euro, not the pound.
This week, the calendar contains interesting events, but we won't focus on secondary ones, as the market continues to ignore most of them. The market is also currently ignoring geopolitics, so attention should be concentrated only on the most important reports. There will only be one such report — inflation in Great Britain. The consumer price index will be published on Wednesday, and forecasts indicate a decrease from 2.8% to 2.6-2.7%. If the actual value matches the forecasts or comes in lower, the Bank of England will have even less reason to tighten monetary policy in the near future.
However, inflation in the UK may accelerate in the second half of 2026, as warned by Andrew Bailey. Therefore, it is still too early to relax. However, given the current values of the indicator, the BoE has no reason to raise the key rate in July or September. June was also a disinflationary month because the conflict in the Middle East halted for a couple of weeks, and oil prices fell to pre-war levels. But in July, the conflict resumed, the Strait of Hormuz became blocked again, and oil prices rose back to $90 a barrel. Thus, inflation may accelerate by the end of July. What happens next is uncertain, so there is little point in predicting.
This week, the BoE's soft stance may put pressure on the British currency, which has begun to correct after three weeks of growth. Therefore, we expect a continuation of the correction unless something extraordinary occurs. From a technical perspective, after completing the correction, the GBP/USD pair may resume growth towards the 1.3700-1.3800 area, where the upper boundary of the sideways channel is located and where the price has remained for a year.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 98 pips, which is considered "average" for the pound/dollar pair. On Tuesday, July 21, we expect movement within the range bounded by levels 1.3320 and 1.3516. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downward, indicating a downward trend. The CCI indicator has formed a "bearish" divergence and has entered the overbought area, signaling the beginning of a downward correction.
S1 – 1.3367
S2 – 1.3306
S3 – 1.3245
R1 – 1.3428
R2 – 1.3489
R3 – 1.3550
The GBP/USD currency pair maintains an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect growth from the American currency in the long term. The year 2026 is shaping up to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, but every fairy tale comes to an end. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat pattern remains between levels 1.3150 and 1.3780 within a four-year upward trend, allowing for expectations of continued growth of the British currency in the medium term. Long positions with targets of 1.3516 and 1.3550 can be considered if the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, trading on the downside can be pursued with targets of 1.3367 and 1.3320.
Dzięki analizom InstaForex zawsze będziesz na bieżące z trendami rynkowymi! Zarejestruj się w InstaForex i uzyskaj dostęp do jeszcze większej liczby bezpłatnych usług dla zyskownego handlu.
