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The AUD/USD pair is attracting buyers during the Asian session and just before the European session on Friday, partially offsetting the previous day's decline and returning to a weekly low. Nevertheless, the ambiguous fundamental situation warrants a cautious approach before asserting that the corrective decline from the five-week high around 0.7025 reached on Tuesday is over and that the pair is ready to resume the upward trend that began from the June low.
The US dollar continues its confident weekly rise, reaching its highest level since June 26, which continues to suppress the growth of the AUD/USD pair.
The escalation of tensions between the US and Iran supports the recent rise in oil prices, pushing them to a new July high, thereby intensifying inflation concerns and contributing to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Additionally, new trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are reducing investor interest in riskier assets and bolstering the dollar as a safe haven. According to a statement released by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's office, the Trump administration plans to impose new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from 60 of the largest trading partners, covering nearly all of the country's imports.
At the same time, the Australian dollar is receiving support from more optimistic-than-expected preliminary PMI data, which indicate a second consecutive month of growth in the private sector. This follows positive employment data from Australia published on Thursday and supports forecasts for a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), helping to limit the decline in the AUD/USD pair.
For better trading opportunities, it is advisable to wait for the preliminary PMI data from the US to be published at the beginning of the North American session. Additionally, significant geopolitical events will affect the dynamics of the US dollar. Subsequently, market attention will focus on the long-awaited two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), scheduled for next week, which will determine the short-term outlook for the US dollar and the AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the pair has found support at the 20-day SMA but has encountered resistance at the convergence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs. Oscillators are in negative territory, indicating that bears have the advantage. For bulls to secure further upward movement, they need to break above the 50- and 100-day SMAs.
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