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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude began the new trading week with a bearish gap and continues to retreat from its July high of around $92.50, recorded last Thursday.
On Friday evening, the United States halted its bombing campaign after 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets, prompting Tehran to suspend its retaliatory actions against Washington's allies in the Middle East. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated that, although military forces remain on standby, President Donald Trump intends to leave room for negotiations. This has revived hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the five-month conflict between the United States and Iran, reducing the geopolitical risk premium and putting downward pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, on July 26, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait declined after Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Saudi oil facilities along the Red Sea coast. This has heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies due to restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, traders have been reluctant to open aggressive short positions, helping to limit further declines in oil prices.
At the same time, investors may prefer to wait for further developments in the Middle East crisis before concluding that crude oil prices have already reached their peak and are poised for a sustained decline.
Analysts at Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets note that oil prices have risen sharply amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions. They point out that "Brent, WTI and refined product prices have surged as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating Russian and Ukrainian conflicts, CPC terminal outages and record-high diesel prices have revived fears of broader supply shortages." They believe these interconnected disruptions have once again intensified concerns over the resilience of global oil supplies, while the combination of geopolitical flashpoints and logistical bottlenecks has fuelled the latest phase of the rally in an already highly complex market environment.
From a technical perspective, WTI has found support at the confluence of the 50-day EMA, the 50-day SMA, and the 14-day EMA. At the same time, momentum oscillators remain in positive territory, confirming that buyers continue to hold the advantage. Therefore, sellers should exercise caution.
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