27.07.202613:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 27th (US Session)

Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1401 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for a euro short position. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair did not experience a significant decline afterwards.

The German business climate delivered a positive surprise to the market, with the Ifo Expectations Index playing the key role. The indicator rose to 86.7 from the revised previous-month reading of 84.3, exceeding the average forecast of 84.8 from surveyed economists. However, the overall picture was not entirely positive, as the Current Conditions Index declined compared with the previous reading, reflecting a more cautious assessment of the current situation among companies. The divergence between these components created a mixed picture, preventing the euro from extending its gains.

During the second half of the day, the pair will remain focused on the release of US Durable Goods Orders, which will be the key market driver for the session. These orders cover products with a long service life and serve as an indicator of investment sentiment, as businesses typically increase purchases of equipment and machinery only when they are confident about future prospects. Strong figures would confirm the resilience of the US economy and support the dollar, while a weak report could weaken its position. For the single currency, the implications are straightforward: strong order growth would strengthen the dollar and put pressure on EUR/USD, while disappointing data would give the euro room to maintain its position.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.1408 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise towards 1.1432. At 1.1432, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can be expected if the economic data is weak.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1390 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal higher. A move towards the opposite levels of 1.1408 and 1.1432 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1390 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1356, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data is strong.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1408 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal lower. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1390 and 1.1356 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further upward movement above this level is considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually taken, as further downward movement below this level is considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during major news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimise potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire trading account, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade with oversized positions.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.