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From a technical perspective, the price action observed over the past month continues to be viewed as a bearish consolidation phase, following the break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This suggests that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD remains to the downside, despite the recent rebound from levels just below $4,000.
Momentum oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming that the bears continue to hold the upper hand.
Against this backdrop, any further upside is likely to encounter resistance near the upper boundary of the current trading range, just below $4,200. A sustained breakout above this area could pave the way for further gains toward the 200-day SMA at $4,500, which remains a key barrier for the bulls and a necessary condition for the resumption of a broader upward trend.
The nearest support is located around the recent swing lows at $3,990–$4,000, where buyers previously stepped into the market. As long as XAU/USD remains below the resistance represented by the 200-day SMA, any recovery is likely to be viewed as a corrective move within a broader consolidation or bearish market structure.
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