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Donald Trump declared this week: "The Strait of Hormuz is completely under the control of the US Navy and is fully safe and free." On Thursday, Iran attacked two state tankers from the United Arab Emirates that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Once again, the world has confirmed that Donald Trump's words do not entirely align with reality. I have repeatedly spoken about the key points of the current situation in the Middle East. Here they are:
Firstly, what Trump says no longer interests anyone in Iran. Tehran does not intend to resume negotiations with Washington, holding it responsible for the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding. Now Tehran is demanding compensation for the violation of the agreement since June 17, and, in addition, it presents a comprehensive list of demands necessary for the de-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's position is firm, but it is based on the strength of its negotiation stance. Washington acted from a position of strength, so why can't Iran act the same way?
Most likely, Iran understands that Trump will not fulfill all of Tehran's ultimatums, but this is irrelevant at the moment. As I mentioned, Iran is buying time until the Congressional elections, in which the Republican Party is very likely to suffer defeat. Even the blockade of Iranian ports now works in Iran's favor. Oil prices are rising again, and fuel prices in the US are increasing. The higher the price of gasoline in America, the greater the inflation, which the Federal Reserve cannot combat right now due to the weakness of the labor market. The higher fuel prices rise, the lower Republican support will be among the electorate. Republicans will lose control of at least one chamber of Congress, and afterward, Trump's initiatives will be blocked by the Democrats. And the Democrats do not want war with Iran. This is the logical chain.
Secondly, any agreement between Iran and Oman is meaningless as long as the US does not meet Iran's ultimatums. The Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked even if Iran and Oman reach an agreement on control over the strait.
Thirdly, Trump no longer has any leverage over Iran. Consequently, Iran currently holds the initiative, and Trump logically decided to "wait and see," because he has nothing else left to do. Based on the above, the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked, and energy prices will likely continue to rise. The conflict is entering a phase of "freezing," as neither side is ready to escalate it. Moreover, there is no sense in doing so.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward section of the trend, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward section of the trend. In my opinion, now is a good time to try to form long positions. However, the instrument may still drop to the 13 figure as part of wave 5 in C. Wave analysis often brings surprises, so I would already start reorienting toward long positions.
The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has become quite complicated. Currently, the instrument has formed three waves down, while EUR/USD could form 5 waves. Therefore, the presumed wave 2 may take on a more complex and elongated form if EUR/USD constructs a convincing wave 5 in C. Alternatively, the wave structure may take on a somewhat different appearance than it does now. For the pound, as with the euro, I am inclined toward medium-term purchases. If we abstract from the wave structure of the euro, I would say that the pound has begun constructing a new upward set of waves.
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