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Today, Friday, EUR/USD is attracting buyers as it continues its recovery above the 100-day SMA. Current spot prices are attempting to break out of the two-week range. Nevertheless, mixed signals remain in the market.
The U.S. Producer Price Index report released on Thursday fell short of expectations and, together with the weak Consumer Price Index figures, points to a slowdown in overall inflation. This gives the U.S. Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged, which, in turn, limits the dollar's decline below its two-week low.
On the other hand, the euro is supported by growing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, as inflation in Europe remains above the 2% target. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty could limit the dollar's decline as a safe-haven currency, preventing EUR/USD bulls from extending their advance.
In the latest developments on Friday, NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Latvian airspace, while Finland imposed temporary restrictions on air and maritime traffic in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland. In addition, according to Reuters, Russia shot down 15 drones near its border with Finland and Estonia overnight, marking another escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Moreover, traders continue to price in a risk premium for military action amid tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This is compounded by attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen on vessels in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as well as a recent report of a drone attack on a Saudi Aramco oil refinery, increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict. All of this supports demand for the U.S. dollar and limits the upside potential of EUR/USD.
From a technical perspective, the pair's break above the 100-day SMA is favorable for the bulls. At the same time, oscillators remain positive and are far from overbought territory, indicating potential for further gains. The nearest resistance is now the round-number level of 1.1600, while the key support is the round-number level of 1.1500. However, for the bulls to gain full control of the market, they need to break above the 200-day SMA.
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