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GBP/USD continues to rise, which I consider fully justified. Reports on the U.S. economy, labor market, and inflation have largely settled the debate over whether the FOMC will raise interest rates in September. Nonfarm Payrolls declined for the fourth consecutive time and fell below zero. The U.S. economy is slowing. Inflation is declining. The situation may change over time, but at present, the FOMC is much closer to maintaining a wait-and-see stance than to making "hawkish" decisions. In recent weeks, there have been widespread market rumors that high inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates. Kevin Warsh has also spoken about excessive inflation that needs to be brought back to the target level. However, as I expected, inflation is not the only factor that matters to the regulator. The labor market is no less important to the FOMC, and its current condition cannot be ignored. Overall, the situation for the Fed in August has become extremely difficult. Tightening monetary policy could cause the economy and labor market to weaken further. At the same time, waiting is also problematic, as inflation could begin to accelerate again. Donald Trump is unwilling to make concessions to Iran, while Iran sees no need to reach any agreements with Trump. The conflict continues, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, and autumn begins in three weeks. An energy crisis just a few months before the start of winter would create additional risks. By the end of the week, the bulls resumed their justified pressure.
As I have already noted, geopolitics is no longer having a favorable impact on the dollar, as negotiations between the United States and Iran have effectively stalled. Officially, Tehran is negotiating only with Oman. It is still unclear what these negotiations will lead to in terms of ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may manage to agree with Oman on the terms for controlling the Strait of Hormuz, but how would this resolve the conflict with the United States and end the U.S. blockade of the strait?
This week, oil prices rose to $92 per barrel. If the situation develops according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices will continue to rise and retest the March–May highs. In this case, inflation in the United States or the United Kingdom could begin to accelerate again. If the situation develops according to the optimistic scenario, oil prices will return to the $60–70 per barrel range. In that case, further Fed tightening may not be necessary, while the Bank of England is currently not facing significant pressure from high inflation. At present, however, it is the Fed that cannot commit to a "hawkish" move, while the Bank of England, by contrast, is prepared to tighten monetary policy if inflation begins to accelerate, although there are currently no signs of this.
Technical analysis shows a new bullish advance. Traders currently have two "bullish" imbalances (24 and 25), within which buying opportunities can be considered. Imbalance 24 has already produced a "bullish" signal that traders could have acted on. There are currently no "bearish" patterns. No liquidity sweeps have occurred recently. Therefore, traders currently only need to keep their long positions open. Another "bullish" imbalance may form next week following Friday's strong rise.
The economic backdrop on Friday was not the main reason for the dollar's renewed decline and the bears' retreat. The first reports were released only a few hours ago and fully supported the bulls. U.S. Retail Sales were much weaker than traders had expected, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed another deterioration. Thus, U.S. economic data simply allowed the bulls to increase the strength of their advance.
The overall fundamental backdrop remains such that, over the long term, I see little reason to expect anything other than a decline in the dollar. The war between Iran and the United States has not changed this view. The possibility of Fed rate hikes in 2026 has not changed it either. Geopolitical developments caused the market to focus on the dollar's safe-haven status for several months, but the conflict has already passed its active phase. The chances of FOMC monetary policy tightening have declined significantly in recent weeks, putting pressure on the U.S. currency. Therefore, in my view, any rise in the dollar is temporary and driven by short-term factors. I see no reason for a new bearish advance.
On August 17, the economic calendar contains no significant releases. The economic backdrop is unlikely to have any impact on market sentiment on Monday.
The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. After liquidity sweeps of the two most recent swings, the bulls began an advance, followed by a corrective pullback and another bullish move. In the near term, I expect the pound to continue rising, as the probability of FOMC monetary policy tightening is currently extremely low. If the bears launch a new advance, bearish patterns will be required for short positions, but there are currently none. The bulls received a buy signal from imbalance 24, which remains valid. The targets for further gains in the pound are the highs from July 15 and May 1 at 1.3557 and 1.3656, respectively; the first target has already been reached. Traders should pay close attention to the 1.3557 swing, from which a liquidity sweep could occur. If this happens, the pound could decline somewhat.
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