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EUR/USD declined slightly on Tuesday, but no signals were generated during the day. Today, the upward move may resume toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1551. Consolidation above 1.1620 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1700.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains "bullish." The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. All waves are currently extremely small. Geopolitical developments have raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran, the United States, and Oman are attempting to reach an agreement on control of the strategically important strait. However, the chances of success are limited, while the market's "hawkish" expectations regarding FOMC monetary policy are easing.
The fundamental backdrop was rather weak on Tuesday and did not attract traders' attention. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the European Union came in at 31.4 points versus expectations of 25.4, while U.S. data on housing starts and building permits were mixed. Thus, the euro could have expected a slight rise, but the market preferred to wait for more significant news. It is unlikely to get it today. Christine Lagarde's speech is an important event, but everything will depend on whether Lagarde provides any hints about the ECB's monetary policy decision in September. The FOMC minutes released in the evening should show how "hawkish" the regulator's stance is at present; however, in my view, these minutes are "perpetually late." The Fed meeting took place three weeks ago. Since then, disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls and consumer price index reports have been released. Disappointing for the dollar. Thus, the Fed's stance may now be completely different from what it was three weeks ago. And even at the end of July, it was not "hawkish."
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the downward-sloping trend channel, suggesting not merely a "bullish" attack, but a full-fledged "bullish" advance and trend. A rebound from the 1.1514 level once again allows the bulls to continue their advance. No new emerging divergences are observed in any indicator. Consolidation above 1.1578 would allow traders to expect further growth toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1630, but I would currently pay more attention to the hourly chart.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 4,661 Long positions and 2,742 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid the supposed ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 197,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 257,000. The bears are once again taking the lead.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show greater interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war seems to end and then starts again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
The economic calendar for August 19 contains three entries, but I cannot consider any of them important. The impact of the fundamental backdrop on market sentiment on Wednesday will most likely be weak.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair is possible today after a rebound from 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. Selling positions are possible if the pair consolidates below 1.1551 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1507.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1411–1.1850 on the 4-hour chart.
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