25.08.202612:28 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Pair Remains Without Significant Momentum for the Second Consecutive Day

Today, Tuesday, GBP/USD continues to move sideways in consolidation, trading below the 1.3660 level. The U.S. dollar is targeting a continuation of its moderate recovery after reaching its lowest levels since May 14, putting pressure on the currency pair. Nevertheless, the absence of further selling in GBP/USD signals to traders that the pair is consolidating.

Moderate U.S. inflation data for July changed market expectations, suggesting that monetary policy will be left unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 15–16. However, traders still assess the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates at least once before the end of the year at more than 75%, given inflation risks associated with fluctuations in oil prices. In addition, rising tensions between the United States and Iran are supporting the dollar as a safe-haven asset and limiting gains in GBP/USD.

Against the backdrop of the Middle East crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the United States was launching a campaign to economically isolate Iran, warning that any country doing business with Iran would risk facing U.S. sanctions. In response to these statements, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said that the Islamic Republic would completely halt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz if the economic war continued.

Nevertheless, traders remain cautious and are avoiding aggressive bullish positions on the U.S. dollar, preferring to wait for additional signals regarding the Fed's future monetary policy. In this regard, attention should be paid to Wednesday's release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as well as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday. These developments could have a significant impact on the dollar's exchange rate and provide new momentum for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD maintains a positive short-term trend, trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). However, confirmation of the positive trend and further gains requires a breakout of the resistance level at 1.3660–1.3667, the monthly high. The nearest support is at 1.3618, followed by the round-number level of 1.3600. The oscillators are positive, confirming the bulls' advantage in the market. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the overbought zone, indicating bullish consolidation.

The table below shows the percentage change in the U.S. dollar against major currencies this week, with the dollar showing its greatest strength against the Japanese yen.