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The EUR/USD currency pair once again exhibited no interesting movements on Wednesday, despite several somewhat notable reports from the U.S. Low volatility should not come as a surprise to anyone, as since August 4, the daily figure has exceeded 63 points only once and 46 points four times. On Wednesday, during the U.S. trading session, the market slightly recovered, but the moves remained too weak. Thus, low activity persists, and the market is openly waiting for Friday.
In principle, this whole week can only be discussed in terms of events scheduled for Friday because there is nothing else to talk about. Of course, the flow of geopolitical news is relentless, but the market is not reacting to it. After all, what is there to react to if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked? Donald Trump alternates between announcing new strikes against Iran and discussing economic isolation, which is unclear how to implement in practice. In simple terms, there are many news items, but no real changes.
On Friday, there is a high probability that the Non-Farm Payrolls will once again shock with their figures, and Kevin Warsh will likely say something that will be mercilessly criticized again. Recall that the previous annual Non-Farm Payroll report "pleased" all dollar enthusiasts with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs. After that, it turned out that the American economy created about 17,000 jobs per month on average throughout 2025. A figure described as "below the baseboard." In 2026, a total of 426,000 jobs were created, with the data for recent months continually revised downward, averaging around 60,000 jobs, which is also very low. Thus, if the annual figure is revised downward, it will automatically imply a new revision of all monthly data. The dollar has every chance of resuming its decline.
Regarding Warsh's speech, the market currently does not trust the Fed Chair. On the one hand, Waller consistently discusses high inflation and the need to combat it. On the other hand, macroeconomic data does not allow for monetary tightening, and the Fed is in no rush to raise the key rate. As they say, words do not match actions. However, if we recall who Warsh's protege is, it is not surprising that his words differ from reality. Thus, traders who hoped for policy tightening by the end of the year may need to abandon their "hawkish" expectations. On Friday, Warsh could say anything. Now, it matters less what the Fed Chair says than whether the market believes him. Given the recent monthly sales of the dollar, it is unlikely that the market is presently inclined toward hawkish Fed policies.
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of August 27 is 36 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect movement in the pair between 1.1615 and 1.1687 on Thursday. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend; however, the trend has already changed. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area again, warning of a new downward correction, which we are currently witnessing.
S1 – 1.1597
S2 – 1.1536
S3 – 1.1475
R1 – 1.1658
R2 – 1.1719
R3 – 1.1780
The EUR/USD pair continues to show an upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, which may indicate the beginning of a new phase in the global upward trend on higher timeframes. The overall fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative; however, in 2026, both geopolitical factors and the Fed's hawkish stance provided strong support for the American currency. At present, these factors no longer support the dollar.
If the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered on corrective grounds, targeting 1.1615 and 1.1597. Long positions remain relevant if the price is above the moving average, with targets at 1.1687 and 1.1719.
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