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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline on Wednesday, with minimal volatility. It feels like the market is doing someone a favor right now. You can't completely stop opening new trades, but you also very much don't want to open new trades. So the market moves just for form's sake, to tick a box so no one can say it's standing still. But you can't fool the volatility indicator. If the pair moves only 40 pips from low to high in a day and this repeats day after day, the conclusion is obvious: traders don't have much desire to trade right now. The question is why.
The answer, in fact, is painfully simple. There are a huge number of factors that theoretically influence market sentiment, and you can't be certain which factors truly matter to traders and which don't. Take one of 2026's key themes — geopolitics. Guns have thundered again in the Middle East, rockets have been launched, and the rhetoric of the leaders of Iran and the U.S. is full of threats. That suggests a new escalation that could, in theory, support the safe-haven dollar. But at the same time, traders know full well that Iran and the U.S. are at war today, and tomorrow there may be a truce or a pause. Today Trump threatens to destroy Iran; tomorrow he announces a deal is near. Moreover, the dollar's rise amid geopolitical turmoil is not simply due to the conflict itself but to capital fleeing the region and its owners seeking to move assets into the most liquid currency — the dollar. So ask who among capital owners hasn't already fled the Middle East? That reduces the unique safety premium for the dollar.
Consider the Federal Reserve's monetary policy — it's even more confusing. Kevin Warsh has repeatedly warned that current inflation is unacceptable, and markets repeatedly interpret his words as a precursor to future tightening. Yet look at the macro data and serious doubts emerge about a rate rise before year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls reports keep disappointing; the economy is slowing, inflation is easing. Why would the Fed raise rates, especially given that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was appointed by Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded lower rates? So many contradictions remain. The market keeps oscillating between expecting tightening and not expecting it.
Remember also the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase bond buybacks. Effectively, this is a form of quantitative easing — albeit without printing additional dollars — which, in any case, eases. So the Treasury loosens while the Fed tightens? Does that mean the Fed won't raise rates? And if the Fed does not tighten, what about inflation that could accelerate in August and September?
The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 3 is 46 pips and is characterized as "medium." We expect the pair to move between 1.1546 and 1.1638 on Thursday. The higher channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating the start of an upward trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area, warning of a possible end to the correction.
S1 – 1.1536
S2 – 1.1475
S3 – 1.1414
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1658
R3 – 1.1719
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, which may mark the beginning of a new leg of a global uptrend on higher timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics first, and then the Fed's hawkish stance, provided strong support for the US currency. However, at present, those factors are no longer supporting the dollar. With the price below the moving average, consider short positions on corrective grounds, targeting 1.1546 and 1.1536. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1658 and 1.1719.
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