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The GBP/USD pair fell on Wednesday to the support area of 1.3465–1.3480, which may become the terminal point of the dollar's recent advance. In our view, the recent downward move is primarily a correction triggered by dubious factors. No fundamental or macroeconomic drivers may be responsible for it, since technical corrections often occur independently of news and events. For example, this week none of the macro releases supported the US dollar, yet the dollar continued to strengthen. Perhaps the market has become fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will tighten policy at the next meeting. Or perhaps the explanation is purely technical: the pound had been rising for a long time and was due for a pullback.
Yesterday there were no notable events in the UK, while the US published the ADP employment report. According to ADP, private sector employment rose by just 38,000 in August — below even the lowest forecasts and below last month's figure. Thus, even the ADP report did not support the dollar. Bear in mind that ADP has no reliable correlation with the official Nonfarm Payrolls, so Friday's data could still surprise.
Technically, the pound continues to form a downward trend, but this week much will depend on US labor-market, unemployment, and business-activity data. A further decline is possible, but remember that the US economy and labor market have shown relatively weak readings in recent months.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, one buy signal formed. The price bounced from the 1.3465–1.3480 area, allowing long positions and suggesting a potential rise in the pound on Thursday.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated the market with short positions for several months. The net position is negative despite the long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar was strong in the first half of 2026. The war is formally over, but the conflict persists; geopolitics is the main near-term support factor for the US dollar. However, until the pound consolidates below the trend line, we would not expect a strong decline in GBP/USD.
In the long run, the dollar is expected to weaken due to Trump's policies, which is visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will persist in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed directly and indirectly at weakening the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains valid as shown by the trend line; price recently retested that line and bounced. According to the latest COT (August 25), the "Non-commercial" group opened 16,300 BUY contracts and 6,200 SELL contracts, so the net position rose by 10,100 contracts during the week.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new downward trend, as indicated by the trendline. But in the long term, the British pound still looks set to rise. We still do not see strong reasons for a prolonged, powerful rise in the U.S. currency, and this week, important overseas reports could create many problems for the dollar. However, technically the decline looks quite natural.
For September 3 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3596) and Kijun-sen (1.3535) may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the stop-loss to break even after the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.
On Thursday, the UK will publish a second-estimate services PMI for August (not market-moving), and the U.S. will release the ISM services index and secondary initial jobless claims. We believe the market may react only to the ISM services index.
Today, traders may open short positions targeting 1.3369–1.3377 if price consolidates below the 1.3465–1.3480 area. Long positions can be opened today in case of a rebound from the 1.3465–1.3480 area with targets at 1.3535 and 1.3588.
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