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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair is consolidating after the recent decline as traders remain cautious about taking large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy decision. At the time of writing, the pair traded around 1.1533, showing little change on the day and remaining close to the monthly low of 1.1523 recorded on Monday.
The US dollar remains near two-week highs as markets have almost fully priced in an expected 25-bp hike that would take the Fed funds target range to 3.75–4.00%. The anticipated Fed move comes against an energy shock driven by the Middle East conflict, which may keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target. Latest data show August CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month with year-on-year inflation at 3.4%. Core CPI increased by 0.3% in August, while PPI rose 0.4%.
Additional economic indicators also point toward tighter policy. A strong August NFP report confirms labor-market resilience. Meanwhile, earlier Wednesday releases show US retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month in August, beating the 0.8% forecast and recovering after July's revised -0.5%.
However, because the market has largely priced in a 25-bp hike, the headline rate decision itself may have limited impact on EUR/USD. The main focus should be on updated economic projections, including the dot-plot, and on Warsh's comments regarding the future policy path. In June, the Fed's dot-plot implied a median year-end rate near 3.8%, pointing to one 25-bp hike in 2026.
A hawkish Fed statement that highlights elevated inflation risks and the need for further hikes would strengthen the dollar and likely push EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a surprise hold or a dovish tone could weaken the dollar and support a recovery in the pair.
Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank has raised rates twice this year to curb inflationary pressures driven by higher oil prices. The ECB is expected to remain on a tightening path, though officials have repeatedly stressed they are not bound to a rigid schedule and future moves will depend on incoming data. That means additional hikes could follow if inflation shows no sign of slowing.
BNY analysts argue that after September the ECB Governing Council will act cautiously: "Most likely the Council will decide meeting by meeting, and views are already split." Some members prefer to wait until December, others demand more decisive steps in response to rising energy prices — highlighting internal disagreement over the necessary degree of tightening. BNY notes that "current data do not support a scenario where strong domestic demand will push core inflation and trigger broad second-round effects," which limits the case for aggressive further tightening. Their conclusion: "the ECB's vigilance is justified, but that does not make another rate hike inevitable."
Technically, the pair is consolidating near the month's lows. Oscillators are mixed and do not give a clear directional bias. Nearest support is the round 1.1500 level. Resistance sits at the 100-day SMA, followed by the 200-day EMA. The table below shows Wednesday's percentage moves of the US dollar versus major currencies; the dollar's largest gain was versus the British pound.
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