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On Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair continues to decline after the Federal Reserve's rate-hike decision and the release of hawkish forward projections.
The Fed voted unanimously (12–0) to raise the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points. After the decision, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continued higher, moving above 100.00.
The updated dot-plot shows that 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more hike this year. Twelve officials project one 25-bp increase, four project two increases, and two project no change.
The median year-end rate forecast rose to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. The 2027 projection was also lifted from 3.6% to 4.1%. The Fed revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% (from 2.2%) and nudged up the headline PCE inflation forecast to 3.7% (from 3.6%). Core PCE was revised to 3.4% (from 3.3%), and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 4.1% (from 4.3%).
Market participants must now watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press-conference comments closely for additional signs about the future policy path.
Signals that the Fed is not in a rush to tighten further could weigh on the dollar and support AUD/USD. Conversely, comments implying additional hikes would strengthen the US currency and press the pair lower.
In Australia, support for the Aussie remains because of monetary-policy expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has held the cash rate at 4.35% for the last three meetings after three consecutive hikes earlier this year.
Still, persistent inflationary pressure keeps hopes alive for further tightening. According to the RBA Rate Tracker, markets price in about a 78% chance of the RBA raising the rate to 4.6% at the next meeting.
Thus, the prospect of another RBA hike could limit downside pressure on the Australian dollar, although the short-term direction of AUD/USD will likely depend primarily on signals the Fed provides.
Technically, the pair remains above the 100-day SMA, suggesting Aussie bulls still believe in RBA hikes, but the RSI has moved into negative territory, showing bulls have lost short-term momentum. However, prices remaining above key moving averages suggest bulls retain long-term upside potential. The 100- and 50-day SMAs provide immediate support. Resistance now sits at 1.7140.
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