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Global markets are still digesting the turbulent events of last week. These were, of course, the final monetary policy decisions by the U.S. and Japanese central banks. Both raised interest rates, and against this backdrop, we observed a strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market, while the yen came under serious pressure.
So why did the yen fall, and what are its prospects against the dollar?
It came under pressure for two main reasons. First, there are growing doubts that, amid the slowdown in Japan's annual inflation rate from 1.8% to 1.7%, the central bank will continue its cycle of interest-rate hikes. Second, two of the voting members of the Bank of Japan spoke against the rate hike, while seven voted in favor, which also raised doubts about the need to increase rates in the near future. These two factors are driving conditions for the yen to weaken not only against the dollar but also against other major currencies.
Now let us turn our attention to the precious metals market, specifically spot gold.
Should we expect the "yellow metal" to continue rising?
In my view, it will be difficult for gold prices to rise given the current conditions and the balance between positive and negative factors. Let us start with the positive factors.
Gold remains a safe-haven and investment asset amid the geopolitical and economic shifts currently taking place around the world, which is a strong supportive factor. A large number of investors hedge their positions in financial markets by purchasing gold. In addition, central banks are also seeking to buy physical gold when its price falls significantly. Many also consider gold to have the potential to become a global means of payment after the end of the dollar's global dominance.
On the other hand, gold is under downward pressure due to the Middle East crisis, which previously forced the Arab monarchies to sell their gold reserves to offset losses caused by the conflict between Israel and the United States, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other. Another negative factor is the strengthening of the U.S. dollar following the resumption of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes after a three-year pause. Since gold is still traded in U.S. dollars on the global market, the dollar's strengthening has a negative impact on its price.
Therefore, taking into account all the positive and negative factors affecting the outlook for gold prices, it can be assumed that gold prices are likely to weaken in the near future. However, after some limited but noticeable declines, buyers are likely to return to the market, providing renewed support.
Daily Forecast:
Gold Spot
Gold is trading near the support level of 4339.75. It may resume its decline toward 4215.90 after breaking below this support level. The 4337.15 level could serve as a selling level. The stop-loss level could be 4408.63.
USD/JPY
The pair is trading above the support level of 156.75 and below the resistance level of 157.30. A break above this level could push the pair higher toward 158.59. The 157.45 level could serve as a buying level. The stop-loss level could be 156.56.
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