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The price test at 1.1452 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro.
In the second half of the day, the dollar gained a fresh impulse after a series of near-synchronous speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin noted that inflationary shocks may take much longer to fade, a view echoed by Boston Fed president Susan Collins. New York Fed president John Williams supported that direction while focusing more on technical aspects. It was a losing day for the euro.
This morning the market's attention is on preliminary September PMIs for the euro area: manufacturing, services and composite indices. August's readings painted a decent picture — the composite was 52.0, manufacturing rose to 52.7 (a near-three-year high), while services eased to 51.6. The market does not expect an equally pronounced jump today and generally looks for growth to remain near current levels. However, even continued positive momentum is unlikely to help the euro much. Traders are so focused on the Fed's next steps after its recent series of hawkish comments that relatively steady euro-area data risk being largely ignored. Under these conditions, EUR/USD will likely remain driven by the US backdrop, and stable business activity in the euro area alone is unlikely to reverse the pair without a much larger catalyst.
For intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, buy the euro around 1.1436 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1463. At 1.1463, I plan to exit long positions and also sell the euro in the opposite direction targeting a 30–35 pip swing from the entry. Expect euro gains only after very strong data. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise.
Scenario No. 2: I will also buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1416 while the MACD is in oversold territory. That would limit the pair's downside and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves to 1.1436 and 1.1463.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after a break below 1.1416 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1386, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Pressure on the pair will return on weak data. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD is below zero and only beginning to fall.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1436 while the MACD is in overbought territory. That would limit the pair's upside and trigger a reversal down. Expect a decline to 1.1416 and 1.1368.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of significant fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not employ money management practices and trade large volumes.
Also, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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