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Recently, discussions about debt have become widespread. Nearly everyone is affected by debt in some form. Households everywhere borrow: Americans live on credit, many Europeans rent for life because they cannot afford to buy property, and in the post-Soviet space people spend decades repaying mortgages. But it's not only individuals and companies that borrow. Whole countries borrow — and that problem is even more serious.
The Institute of International Finance reported this week that total global debt exceeded $365 trillion in 2026. Frankly, it's hard to add much to that. The number is frightening and bodes ill. Even those without an economics degree understand that, sooner or later, this ends in economic collapse. History shows such collapses have happened repeatedly.
The IIF notes that debt is rising because government spending is rising. In plain terms: many countries are living beyond their means. And we are not talking about marginal economies, but the leaders of the global economy. That leadership is financed by borrowing. Yields on government bonds are rising not only in the US but also in Japan, the UK, and many other developed countries. For decades, investors overlooked the steady growth of public spending and debt, but eventually the scale forces a question: how will this end? In recent years, wars and conflicts have swept the world. The development of AI pushes us closer to scenarios once thought cinematic. Rising sovereign debt and public spending suggest the economy could implode at any moment.
What options are there to address rising debt? Either print money to cover it, borrow less, or do nothing. It seems world leaders have chosen the third path. Continuous money printing will trigger inflation. If you fight inflation by tightening monetary policy, you can forget about economic growth. Why then accumulate massive sovereign debt if the economy neither grows nor develops? The second option—borrowing less—is also unappealing for most countries caught in economic and geopolitical competition. Each country knows that falling behind competitors can have dire consequences for its prospects and even its territorial standing. The weaker you are, the more vulnerable you become.
So the remaining choice is to do nothing. No one wants to lose, so governments sit on a powder keg and wait for it to go off. It will explode; there's no doubt. The only question is when.
The EUR/USD pair continues moving downward, but we still view the decline as a correction before a new upward trend. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, geopolitics first, and then the Fed's hawkish stance, have provided strong support to the US currency. When price is below the moving average, consider shorts with targets at 1.1292 and 1.1230. Above the moving average, long positions are relevant with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1536.
The GBP/USD pair continues its illogical downward movement. Donald Trump's policies will keep pressuring the US economy, so we do not expect long-term dollar gains. 2026 has been positive for the dollar so far due to geopolitics and inflation, which forced capital to seek refuge and prompted the Fed to return to tightening. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat range between 1.3150 and 1.3780 persists within a four-year uptrend, allowing for medium-term upside in the pound. Consider long positions with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3428 when price is above the moving average. If price is below the moving average, trade the downside, targeting 1.3160 and 1.3123.
Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is currently strong;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at present;
Murray levels are target levels for moves and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) are the probable price channel within which the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.
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