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Yesterday, the euro faced bad news from both sides, while the dollar, by contrast, received confirmation of its strength. The pound was left somewhat on the sidelines: it had no catalysts of its own and moved mostly on inertia. Looking at all three currencies together, the picture was: the dollar strengthened, the euro weakened, and the pound waits to see which way it will be pulled.
Yesterday was a tough day for the euro. The first hit came from France. Political crisis around the 2027 budget flared up again, and investors once more doubted whether the government can pass the bill through parliament without shocks. For the market, this is not just a domestic issue but a risk for the entire eurozone, since France's economy is too large for its problems to remain purely local. In the second half of the day this was compounded by US data. Initial jobless claims for the week fell by 1,000 to 198,000 — a simple but important indicator: the lower it is, the stronger the labor market. Then the ISM manufacturing report for September was released: 54.5 versus 54.6 in August, the ninth month in a row above 50, the expansion threshold. The slight slowdown did not upset the market; both prints were read as confirmation that the US economy remains firm. I see a double effect here: when negative news for one currency overlaps with positive news for another, the move not only adds up but gains extra momentum — yesterday showed that in practice. Until the French budget issue is resolved, the euro will remain vulnerable to any strong US print.
Now about today. In the first half of the day, the main event for the euro will be eurozone inflation. Headline CPI for September is expected at about 3.7%, noticeably above prior readings. In my view, more attention will go to the core measure forecast at 2.5% — it excludes fuel and food and shows whether inflation is heating up inside the economy; the European Central Bank watches it when thinking about rates. If real numbers beat forecasts, chances of a rate rise at the next meeting will jump. Rate upside usually helps a currency because it attracts yield-seeking investors. That could at least partially offset the pressure from French politics and restore demand for EUR/USD before noon. If figures match or miss forecasts, the market will have no fresh reason to buy, and the pair will keep following the Paris budget story rather than its own data. That seems more likely to me, because in recent days the euro has suffered more from politics than from inherent economic weakness.
The pound will be quiet this morning. The UK calendar contains no inflation, labor, or activity prints — the data that usually shape Bank of England expectations. Without domestic catalysts, the pound tends to move in technical corrections detached from news. I think that calm gives decent conditions for a modest bullish bounce in GBP/USD. On such days, the market often closes some short positions and takes profits instead of blindly adding to them, especially since the key US reports are scheduled for the second half of the day. So until those prints arrive, I expect participants to act cautiously and the pound to show a moderate recovery.
Momentum today can appear in two places: Eurozone inflation and US data in the afternoon.
For the euro, the upside breakout point is 1.1264, and consolidation above opens the way to 1.1307 and then 1.1346. That scenario is possible if inflation beats forecasts and restores demand for the euro. But if the data come in line with expectations, nothing will trigger a surge. To the downside, 1.1218 works, targeting 1.1174 and 1.1136. I consider this direction the primary one, since the French budget remains unresolved and any euro weakness will quickly turn into sales. Forty-six pips separate the two breakout points, and while price wanders within this range, it is too early to treat any breakout as confirmed.
For the pound, the upper trigger is 1.3223, targets 1.3265 and 1.3307. With an empty calendar, an upward move would be more of a technical correction than a news-driven rally, so I wouldn't expect a confident series of gains, but the first target seems attainable. To the downside, the breakout point is 1.3180, with targets 1.3137 and 1.3097. This scenario will return to play in the afternoon when US reports intervene. In the morning, it is unlikely because sellers lack an external push. Forty-three pips separate the two points, and with no news, the pound has enough room to oscillate inside the band and delay a decision until lunch.
A quiet morning without strong news suits playing false breakouts, especially on the pound, where the calendar is empty. The euro is more dangerous in this regard because inflation can knock it out of the range.
For the euro to the upside, I watch 1.1269 — only five pips above the breakout point 1.1264. If price moves above 1.1264, reaches 1.1269, and quickly returns below, I consider selling because the move found no buyers. If it consolidates above 1.1269, that is a breakout toward 1.1307, and selling against it is forbidden. Five pips is too tight a distance to distinguish one from the other on a first touch, so I will wait for a candle close. I place the stop above 1.1269 with a small buffer. The lower reference 1.1230 lies twelve pips above the breakout point 1.1218, and here the picture is different. Price meets 1.1230 on the way down before reaching 1.1218, and if it dips below but returns, I look for buy positions with the stop under 1.1218. If pressure continues and price slices through 1.1230, the breakout is already working, and I ignore return trades. Given the French background, I expect less of a rebound from the lower level than further downside.
For the pound, the upper reference 1.3227 sits only four pips above the breakout point 1.3223, so mistakes are easiest here. If price passes 1.3223, reaches 1.3227, and consolidates above, that is a breakout with a target of 1.3265, and selling against it is forbidden. If it touched the zone and failed to hold, I consider selling with a stop above 1.3227 and a buffer. The lower reference 1.3183 lies three pips above the breakout point 1.3180, and the situation is equally tight. If price drops below 1.3180, quickly returns above, and holds, I look for buys with a stop under the false-break low. If it consolidated below, that is a breakout toward 1.3137 and buying against it is forbidden. Today's quiet UK calendar helps the pound because no one will rip the price on domestic news, but it also hurts because US data in the afternoon can instantly break any return. Therefore, I treat pound mean-reversion setups as valid until lunch and try to close them before the US prints.
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