06.10.202611:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: The Pair Shows Limited Recovery Potential

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to consolidate, trading above 1.3200 and remaining within the range that has been in place for the past two weeks.

Investors are pricing in expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England, driven by persistently high inflation caused by rising energy costs, which is providing support for the British pound.

At the same time, the US dollar is pausing after its recent sharp rise, having reached levels not seen since April 2025. This is also becoming a factor supporting GBP/USD. Nevertheless, ongoing geopolitical risks and high yields on US government bonds continue to support the dollar's strengthening. Regarding the crisis in the Middle East, Yemen's Houthi movement announced on Monday that it had conducted three military operations using drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles targeting airports, oil facilities, and military bases in Saudi Arabia.

In addition, press reports indicate that Israel is preparing potential operations against Iran, either in cooperation with the United States or independently. Furthermore, the deepening budget crisis in France has triggered a prolonged decline in the bond market. Treasury bonds, meanwhile, are trading at multi-year highs. This, in turn, continues to strengthen the dollar as a safe-haven asset, limiting the potential for GBP/USD to rise.

Meanwhile, data released last week indicated a decline in inflationary pressures in the United States. Against the backdrop of a weak nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, expectations of an October interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve decreased. However, traders still price in a probability of more than 80% that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by the end of the year, supporting a positive outlook for the US dollar.

At the same time, the market appears to be in no hurry to open new positions, awaiting additional signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future policy. Therefore, particular attention should be paid to the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Speeches by key FOMC members and incoming geopolitical news will also play an important role in the dollar's dynamics and, consequently, in the movement of GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, trading within a limited range can be characterized as a stage of bearish consolidation. The pair is below all major moving averages, indicating that attempts to recover remain vulnerable. The nearest resistance is provided by the 9-day EMA. The round 1.3200 level provides support. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage in the market. Therefore, the path of least resistance is to the downside.