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Markets have seen this scenario before. When Donald Trump publicly called on the Fed to cut interest rates, the dollar weakened amid concerns about the central bank's independence. A similar situation is now developing in the eurozone. Marine Le Pen is calling on the ECB to intervene in the bond market, and investors are once again questioning whether the central bank can withstand political pressure.
Euro Performance Against G10 Currencies
EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level in 17 months, while the euro is also weakening steadily against most other G10 currencies. Hedge funds are increasingly closing short positions through the franc and the yen rather than EUR/USD, viewing these crosses as a cleaner way to express a bearish outlook without the additional dollar risk premium.
France remains at the center of the pressure. The government is missing its budget deficit targets, parliament is facing political deadlock, and the country is awaiting presidential elections. Le Pen has called on the ECB to reduce the cost of servicing French debt in order to free up funds for defense and climate programs. Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau rejected the proposal, reminding her that the central bank's mandate is inflation, not the budgets of individual countries.
France's Budget Dynamics and Forecasts
Jean-Luc Melenchon threatened Villeroy with charges of high treason if he wins the election. Villeroy responded that, until now, he had known only one country where attempts had been made to intimidate a central banker: Trump's America and Jerome Powell. He said he had no intention of deviating from the central bank's mandate.
The yield premium on French bonds over German bonds has more than doubled since the end of May and reached its highest level since the 2011 eurozone crisis. The spread has retreated from its peak but remains elevated at around 139 basis points. Traders have slightly reduced expectations for ECB deposit-rate hikes, now pricing in three moves by September 2027 instead of the four previously expected.
Political turmoil in Spain is also adding pressure on the euro, reminding investors that the problem extends beyond France. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called early elections for November 29 after parliament rejected the government's housing plan. MUFG does not expect the election outcome to significantly increase risks for the single currency, although it sees the possibility of greater political uncertainty in the eurozone in the short term.
Rabobank expects EUR/USD to reach 1.12 in a year, while allowing for a short-term recovery toward 1.13 as market tensions ease. The bank believes pressure on the euro will persist due to selling of bonds issued by highly indebted eurozone countries, while uncertainty surrounding the French presidential election will continue to weigh on the pair for several more months.
Will the ECB's mandate withstand the same test of political pressure that the Fed recently faced?
Technically, on the daily EUR/USD chart, sellers are attempting to resume the downward trend. Selling toward 1.1 and 1.087 remains relevant.
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