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On Wednesday, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, gaining 0.42% and trading near the 100-day SMA. This marks the fourth consecutive session of gains: the Australian currency updated a three-week high after rebounding from a low just below the round 0.6900 level — the strongest since early July.
The main driver of the Australian dollar remains hawkish signals from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials, which reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening. On Monday, RBA deputy governor Christopher Kent said several indicators point to higher neutral interest rates in Australia and globally. His remarks pushed the market to expect restrictive policy to persist longer than previously expected.
On Wednesday, RBA assistant governor Andrew Hauser further warned that trimmed-mean core inflation could exceed forecasts in the third quarter. This increases the likelihood of a rate hike at the next RBA meeting scheduled for November 3.
Additional support for the Australian dollar comes from favorable macro data out of China — Australia's key trading partner. China's Q3 GDP growth exceeded consensus forecasts, reducing the risks of a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and improving prospects for demand for Australian exports.
The US dollar also receives some support, but it is insufficient to halt AUD/USD's strengthening. Expectations of renewed talks between Washington and Tehran reduce the appeal of safe-haven assets, although ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep investors cautious. Market participants should now watch preliminary global PMI readings due Friday and then the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week.
MUFG analysts note that the Australian fixed-income market saw a marked rise overnight in the odds of another RBA rate hike before year-end. The trigger was Hauser's hawkish comments, which described the inflation outlook as "materially worse" compared with the RBA's August projections.
Hauser said: "We see rising prices related to artificial intelligence and technology, which is reflected in the consumer price index. In addition, Australia is experiencing a building boom in the data-center segment — another source of inflationary pressure alongside limits to domestic production capacity." He also said inflation remains elevated for too long and that public confidence in the central bank's ability to return it to target in the foreseeable future is waning.
MUFG estimates that these statements led traders to price in roughly a 50% chance of another RBA rate hike next month.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart the AUD/USD pair has reached the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), resting on the convergence of three significant moving averages. If bulls clear the 100- and 200-day SMAs, they will gradually begin to control the market. But as long as oscillators remain negative, bears retain the advantage.
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