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USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair managed to hold the upside and reached 106.33 this morning. While it is currently off that high, it is seeking support from the 50-period (30-minute chart) moving average. In fact, the 20-period moving average remains above the 50-period one, helping to maintain the bullish bias. If the pair succeeds in breaking above the high seen this morning, it could proceed further to the first upside target at 107.00 (a level above that, seen just before the Brexit vote in June).
Market Commentary :
On Monday, US stock indexes ended with modest gains through a session marked by low volumes and tight trading ranges, led by technology and commodities shares. Investors were also encouraged by the Bank of America's better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Posting its seventh straight day of gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 16 points higher at 18533, its fifth record closing level in a row. The S&P 500 climbed 0.2% to 2166, another record high, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5% to 5055.
European stocks stabilized, with the STOXX Europe 600 rising 0.2%. Germany's DAX was broadly flat, while the UK's FTSE 100 added another 0.4%.
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield declined to 1.581% from 1.597% Friday. Gold lost 0.7% to settle at $1328 an ounce, and silver fell 0.9% to $20.02 an ounce (day-low at $19.69). Meanwhile, Nymex crude oil dropped 1.6% to $45.24 a barrel.
On the forex front, the New Zealand dollar plunged 1.3% to 0.7023 against the US dollar (previous close: 0.7113) this morning after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced tightened loan rules to curb speculation in the housing market, which investors viewed as a move to pave the way for another interest rate cut next month.
AUD/USD was down 0.7% to 0.7534 this morning (previous close: 0.7590).
Overnight USD/JPY rebounded 1.3% to 106.15, EUR/USD rebounded 0.3% to 1.1071, and GBP/USD was up 0.5% to 1.3255.
Recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. Therefore, long positions are recommended with the first target at 106.30 and the second one, at 107.00. In the alternative scenario, short positions are recommended with the first target at 104.60 if the price moves below its pivot points. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 103.90. The pivot point is at 105.25.
Resistance levels: 106.30, 107.00, 107.45
Support levels: 104.60, 103.90, 103
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