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The issue of the impact of coronavirus on the global economy is still in the spotlight and seems to play a leading role until the number of cases in Europe and the USA goes down steadily. As before, we believe that April will be the turning point in this regard. In the meantime, the currency market is pretty calm. Investors are waiting for an influx of "fresh" money, which the Fed is actively "printing", which will definitely start to resume. Purchases, primarily in the stock markets.
So far, investors have doubts, as they are under the strongest influence of the information pressure of the media and all kinds of experts who predict universal cataclysms not only in the economy, but also in society. But despite this, we believe that quite noticeable signals are already being observed that characterize the formation of a local "bottom" not only in a pandemic crisis, but also in risky asset markets. We believe that this "bottom" was formed at the end of last month.
This theory is also confirmed by the dynamics of the currency market. The policy of the Fed's unlimited financial infusions, which was announced at the very height of the pandemic, despite all the justified criticism, is doing its job, stopping global markets from falling further. The ICE dollar index is currently slightly below the local maximum of three years ago, having failed to overcome it. It seems to us that it will not be overcome, at least not now. The reason for this will be a decrease in the influence of coronavirus and its gradual localization against the background of the most severe quarantine measures.
We believe that at the moment, everything indicates that the peak of the influence of this adversity is failing, which means that signals of its stabilization will lead to an increase in investment activity in the markets. Given this, we expect that the impact of the dollar as a safe haven currency in catastrophic situations will gradually fade away, which, amid the unprecedented and widespread stimulus measures by the Fed and the US Treasury, will continue to weaken as against major currencies, with the exception of the Japanese and Swiss, and in relation to commodity.
Will this process be linear? Definitely not. Local surges in the appreciation of the US are possible on the market, but in general, the weakening influence of the pandemic, as well as the restoration of business and industrial activity in China, will support the demand for highly profitable currencies. The expected oil agreement between the US, Russia and OPEC in the person of Saudi Arabia, together with the growing demand for oil from the "heavenly side", will support crude oil prices.
We emphasize once again that the weakening of the impact of the pandemic will definitely weaken the course of the US currency in the future.
Forecast of the day:
The USD/JPY pair is receiving support on a wave of two factors, on the one hand, weak signals about the weakening of the influence of the pandemic coronavirus in Europe and the USA, as well as a high probability that the Japanese authorities will impose quarantine because of fears of a wider spread of COVID-19 in the country. We expect that the pair, having consolidated above the level of 108.80, will continue to grow by 110.00.
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