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Early in the American session, the British pound (GBP/USD) is trading around 1.2131 and inside a downtrend channel formed since March 10. The latest Japanese candle shows that a trend change could occur in the next few hours if the pair trades below 1.2147 which represents a strong top.
In case GBP/USD falls below the 21 SMA located at 1.2116, we could expect a bearish acceleration and the pair could find support at 1.2085 and at the 200 EMA located at 1.2068.
The pound tried to break the strong resistance at 1.2207 (4/8 Murray) and failed. Since then, it has made a technical correction and is now showing signs of exhaustion.
The markets believe that there is a 90% probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the monetary policy meeting next week. Therefore, risk aversion should continue to support the dollar. Therefore, we could expect a fall in the British pound in the coming days.
Therefore, in case the British pound approaches the 1.2147 zone and fails to break it, it will be seen as a signal to sell with targets at 1.2068. The eagle indicator is in the overbought zone, so any technical bounce could be seen as an opportunity to sell below 4/8 Murray (1.2207).
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