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In our previous review, we noted that Australia's GDP per capita is slipping into recession, consumer sentiment is declining rapidly, and disruptions in fuel supply are expected to slow activity in the mining and agricultural sectors.
The monthly consumer confidence index showed solid growth at the end of 2025, but since January it has been slowing, and in February it is expected to rise by no more than 0.3% month-on-month.
It is worth noting that the slowdown began even before the outbreak of the Gulf conflict. This means that as early as March, consumers will face a sharp increase in fuel costs, which will further reduce consumer confidence.
The obvious solution would be reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming the transit of oil and gas from the region. The announced ceasefire largely addresses this issue, but it will take months to restore the damaged infrastructure—even in an optimistic scenario. As for the pessimistic one, it may well prevail. Iran has once again suspended transit after allowing only four tankers through, as Israel continues its bombardment of Lebanon. U.S. representatives state that halting attacks on Lebanon is not part of the agreement. The situation is escalating again, and it remains unclear whether the next developments will support de-escalation or a renewed intensification of the conflict.
Net long positions on the Australian dollar increased by $0.67 billion over the reporting week to $5.62 billion. The Australian dollar remains the only currency maintaining a stable bullish positioning against the U.S. dollar. At the same time, the estimated price is below its long-term average, suggesting a likely decline in the short term.
A week earlier, we assumed that AUD/USD, under the threat of recession amid escalating conflict, would continue moving downward toward the 0.6700–0.6710 level. The ceasefire triggered a surge of optimism, so a pullback upward appears justified. However, it is important not to forget that the recession risk has not disappeared. If the start of negotiations between the United States and Iran is confirmed, along with commitment to the ceasefire, AUD/USD may stage another short-term rally toward 0.7190. However, the chances of updating the local high remain low. Any slowdown in peace negotiations—or especially a breakdown of the ceasefire—will increase pressure on the Aussie, sending it back onto a downward trajectory.
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