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GBP/USD now has a strong opportunity to resume its decline after reacting to Bearish Imbalance 19, following two weeks of trading within that zone. Undoubtedly, Friday's catalyst for renewed bearish pressure was the U.S. economic data, which turned out to be unexpectedly strong. Few market participants likely anticipated such robust Nonfarm Payrolls figures for April and May. However, the U.S. labor market in 2026 has indeed been performing much better than it did last year, providing support for the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical developments are also currently favoring the dollar, as Tehran and Washington remain unable to sign even an interim agreement on peace and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the dollar continues to hold a stronger position relative to both the euro and the pound. Although the current technical picture appears relatively straightforward and suggests further downside for the pair, I would caution traders against drawing definitive conclusions. The dollar received strong support today, but nobody knows what developments may occur over the weekend or on Monday. If an unexpected breakthrough occurs and Donald Trump ultimately signs a deal with Iran, demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar could quickly begin to fade.
Therefore, bears have received an excellent opportunity to extend their advance thanks to the U.S. labor market data, but maintaining this momentum will require additional support from geopolitical developments. The more negative the geopolitical backdrop becomes, the more favorable it will be for the dollar.
Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict is currently better than it was a few months ago when the parties were engaged in full-scale military confrontation. Nevertheless, conditions can change rapidly. Over the past several weeks, there have been numerous potential triggers for renewed escalation, and only the apparent reluctance of both sides to resume active hostilities has prevented a return to broader conflict.
In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's substantial declines this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still in effect and could potentially be extended for another 60 days. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies largely on statements from Donald Trump. Iran continues to present a very different perspective.
The situation continues to shift between positive and negative developments. At present, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement can be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited.
The technical picture is currently as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a price reaction, while Bearish Imbalance 19 remained close to invalidation for two weeks but may ultimately generate a valid sell signal. As a result, the technical outlook shifted dramatically within a single day. However, it could reverse again in the coming days, as geopolitical developments have recently been changing several times per day.
Friday's economic backdrop supported both the bears and the U.S. dollar. The Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered unexpectedly strong figures for both May and April. Following that report, the unemployment rate became largely irrelevant, although it remained unchanged at 4.3% in May. As a result, bears are currently benefiting from favorable conditions, but the key question is how long this environment will persist.
The broader fundamental backdrop still leads me to expect long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar. The conflict between Iran and the United States has changed little in that regard. Geopolitical tensions have temporarily restored the dollar's safe-haven appeal, but the overall outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging. If the U.S. economy gains momentum in 2026, the Federal Reserve resumes its tightening cycle, and the conflict between the United States and Iran evolves into a prolonged confrontation, then the dollar could potentially strengthen toward the 1.3100–1.3000 level. However, in my opinion, the long-term outlook for the U.S. dollar cannot be fundamentally altered by a single strong Nonfarm Payrolls report.
News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom
June 8: The economic calendar contains no significant releases. Therefore, economic data is unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips
The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, although the most recent signal is a sell signal. Therefore, provided geopolitical developments do not interfere, bears may continue targeting the lows formed on May 18 and March 31. Liquidity may be collected below those swing lows, after which bulls could regain control if the geopolitical backdrop becomes more supportive.
At present, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which the conflict between Iran and the United States continues for months or years. Consequently, any appreciation of the U.S. dollar is likely to have limited long-term potential.
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