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Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in a pause before... another leg up? Or a correction? Interestingly, the two most important recent events for the crypto world were arguably negative rather than positive. Central banks (notably the Federal Reserve) have begun tightening monetary policy, which increases demand for safe assets like bank deposits and government bonds. Although demand for Treasuries has fallen globally, yields have risen — meaning investors could restore demand for these securities in the future if governments act. So far Washington's response has been Treasury buybacks, intended to lower supply and arrest rising yields. Supposedly, that would stop yields from rising. Since the Treasury announced buybacks, 30?year yields have risen another 6% and 10?year yields about 12%...
Meanwhile, investor Jordi Visser says he expects a major move in the crypto market in Q4 2026. Visser argues that a rise in Bitcoin above $82,000 with a confirmed close above that level would validate the transition of "digital gold" into a sustained bull trend. In that case, investors and capital could flow into crypto and trigger a powerful new rally. Visser says the fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin is improving day by day.
He noted that fund managers and large investors typically make major allocation decisions in the final quarter of the year, and interest in Bitcoin continues to recover. Visser does not tie his analysis to the four?year cycle, arguing that Bitcoin is driven by different, more immediate factors rather than simple historical patterns. He also cites FOMO — fear of missing out — and believes many investors are on the verge of deciding to buy Bitcoin because they fear being too late for a bull run. He added that recent US labor, unemployment and inflation data should soften the Fed's stance toward further tightening, and the regulator may resume easing in 2027 — something investors can start preparing for now. A peak and subsequent reversal in Treasury yields could also support "digital gold."
Bitcoin shows all the signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend often begins with a pump that has no concrete reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act has not been passed. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in a decline, as price has reacted to a bearish FVG. Traders should note that the current breakout beyond the daily range may be a deviation — yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could still fall back to $57,500. On the 4?hour timeframe, both longs and shorts can be considered locally, but we still expect a pullback.
On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ethereum changed completely in just a few days. Ethereum is now looking toward a new uptrend. However, traders should base decisions on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is headed for $4,800 — the upper band of a five?year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a notable price reaction; the next FVG might. Bitcoin has already filled the nearest bearish FVG on the daily, so both cryptocurrencies may be in a correction in the near term. Recent gains in digital assets have been driven largely by pumps. There are currently more fundamental reasons for a decline in both cryptocurrencies than for continued growth — but liquidity flows can still rush into the crypto market even without fundamental catalysts.
Crosses of — or price tests of — these moving averages typically either stop the move or set a new market impulse.
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