14.10.202600:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. Political Uncertainty in France Weighs on the Euro

On Tuesday, despite a slight rise, the currency pair remains under pressure: the Japanese yen is strengthening amid expectations of further monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan, while the euro struggles with political instability in France and rising inflation concerns in the eurozone.

Fresh inflation data from Germany heightened worries about persistent price pressure. According to figures published Tuesday by Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rose 3.3% year-on-year in September. The result matched forecasts and exceeded August's 2.9% and July's 2.8%, indicating accelerating inflation. Month-on-month consumer prices rose 0.6% versus 0.2% a month earlier.

Destatis head Ruth Brand said German inflation exceeded 3% in September for the first time since December 2023. The main reason was higher energy prices, including heating oil and motor fuel.

The publication came amid sustained geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which keep oil prices elevated. Brent has eased from monthly highs above $105 per barrel but remains above $100.

This raises costs for European companies and households. Expensive energy and weakening economic activity increase the likelihood of stagflation in the eurozone. As a result, the European Central Bank faces a difficult task: it must contain inflation without further deteriorating growth. Faster inflation in Germany could prompt the central bank to maintain a more cautious policy stance, which might limit further euro declines.

At the same time, political uncertainty in France continues to hurt the single currency's appeal. Rising public debt and difficulties in building parliamentary support for fiscal consolidation measures have pushed French borrowing costs to levels last seen during the European sovereign-debt crisis. Student protests demanding higher public education spending have added another source of instability.

On the other side of the pair, expectations of further BOJ rate increases and speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities to stabilize the currency are supporting the Japanese yen.

Data published Tuesday show Japan's producer price index (PPI) rose 6.8% year-on-year in September. Although slower than August's pace, the figure indicates persistent inflationary pressure and strengthens expectations of further monetary normalization by the BOJ.

Under these conditions, the EUR/JPY pair is squeezed between two opposing forces: persistent inflationary pressure in Europe and expectations of monetary tightening in Japan.

Faster price growth in Germany could support the euro by reinforcing ECB caution, but political risks in France and continued demand for the yen still limit the pair's upside.

From a technical standpoint, the pair met resistance at the 9-day EMA. Above it, the 14-day EMA near 177.75 will act as resistance. To ease initial bearish pressure, the pair needs to clear the 20-day SMA and the round level 179.00. For now, oscillators are negative, and bears have the advantage. The path of least resistance is downward.

The table below shows the euro's percentage change against major currencies for Tuesday. The most notable euro strengthening was against the US dollar.