23.07.202014:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the American session on July 23

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, nothing significant happened, except the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.1597, from which I recommended opening short positions. Let's look at this input in more detail. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears managed to protect the resistance of 1.1597 in the first half of the day, without letting the pair go higher. Other attempts by the bulls to break above this range were not successful, which formed a good point for selling the euro. At the moment, the main task of the bulls remains the same - to protect the support of 1.15555. And only the formation of a false breakout on it will be a signal to open long positions in order to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1597. One should be very careful to buy the euro at the current high, as divergence is forming on the MACD indicator, which will limit the upward potential. If there is no activity on the part of sellers after fixing above the level of 1.1597, you can add to long positions in the expectation of updating the highs of 1.1648 and 1.1682, where I recommend fixing the profits. Given that a report on the US labor market is expected in the second half of the day, a surge in volatility and a return of EUR/USD to the support of 1.15555 is quite likely. In this scenario, it is best to open long positions after updating yesterday's low of 1.1509 or immediately on a rebound from the support of 1.1466 in the expectation of a correction of 25-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Bears coped with the morning task and did not let the euro above the resistance of 1.1597, forming a good sell signal there. While trading is below this range, there is a fairly high chance of implementing the morning plan, namely, the return of EUR/USD to the support area of 1.15555. Another goal of bears for the second half of the day will be a breakout and consolidation below this level, which will only strengthen the downward correction and push the euro to the minimum of 1.1509, where I recommend fixing the profits. A further area at the end of the week will be the support of 1.1466. If the bulls again return the pair to the resistance area of 1.1597 after the data on the US labor market and activity from sellers will not be observed, it is best to postpone short positions until the maximum of 1.1648 is updated or sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1682 in the calculation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the possible formation of a downward correction in the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

Breaking the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1597 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A breakdown of the lower border in the area of 1.15555 will lead to a larger sell-off of the euro.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.