| 00:00 |
|
FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks
|
|
|
|
|
Medium
|
| Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan.
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. |
| 08:30 |
|
Bank of Japan Press Conference
|
|
|
|
|
High
|
Press conference of the BoJ. |
| 10:55 |
|
Unemployment Rate
|
Oct |
6.3% |
6.3% |
|
Medium
|
The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.
Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems. |
| 10:55 |
|
Unemployment Change
|
Oct |
-8K |
-5K |
|
Medium
|
The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany. |
| 14:30 |
|
GDP
|
3 quarter |
-31.4% |
32.0% |
|
High
|
The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the US economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight into the driving forces of the economy.
GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance
Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.
Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services
The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.
On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter's end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most. |
| 14:30 |
|
GDP Price Index
|
3 quarter |
-1.8% |
2.9% |
|
Medium
|
Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.
The headline figure is the annualized percentage change. |
| 14:30 |
|
Unemployment Claims
|
Oct |
787K |
|
|
Medium
|
The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA. |
| 14:30 |
|
Continuing Claims
|
Oct |
8373K |
|
|
Medium
|
Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment. |
| 14:45 |
|
ECB Interest Rate Announcement
|
Oct |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
High
|
The European Central Bank's decision to increase, decrease, or maintain interest rates. Controlling interest rates is the key mechanism of monetary policy, and the ECB influences interest rates by first changing the "overnight rate" through the purchase or sale of government bonds. Lowering rates can spur economic growth but may incite inflationary pressures. On the other hand, increasing rates slow inflation but can stymie growth.
The European Central Bank makes a concerted effort to be transparent in its policy. Frequent speeches by Bank Governors make policy goals clear and the Bank adheres to a stated inflation target of 2% changing rates accordingly to meet that goal. Because of this, rate decisions are generally well anticipated, but very important nonetheless.
The ECB's rate decision has an enormous influence on financial markets. Because the ECB interest rate is essentially the return investors receive while holding Euros, changes in rates affect the exchange rate of the Euro.
Because rate changes are usually well anticipated, the actual decision does not tend to impact the market. But if the ECB changes rates they will hold a press conference where some rationale for the decision is offered. Market participants pay close attention to the press conference, hoping to clue in on the likelihood of further rate changes. Often, the language used in the press conference holds important signals to how ECB feels about inflation and the economy. The ECB President's language will be "hawkish" if he is pessimistic about the inflation outlook for the economy. In that case, the market sees a higher chance of future rate hike. Conversely, if the ECB President believes inflation is in check, his remarks will be "dovish," and the market perceives a future rate increase to be unlikely. |
| 14:45 |
|
Deposit Facility Rate
|
Oct |
-0.50% |
-0.50% |
|
Medium
|
Financial institutions can place surplus funds in the European Central Bank-administered Marginal Lending Facility to be loaned to institutions requiring overnight loans to meet temporary cash shortages. The Deposit Rate is the interest paid to depositors when they place funds with their respective national Central Bank within the Eurosystem. |
| 14:45 |
|
Marginal Lending Facility
|
Oct |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Medium
|
A mechanism that central banks use when lending funds to primary dealers. Lending facilities provide financial institutions with access to funds in order to satisfy reserve requirements using the overnight lending market. Lending facilities are also used to increase liquidity over longer periods such as by using term auction facilities. |
| 14:45 |
|
Monetary Policy Report
|
|
|
|
|
High
|
|
| 15:00 |
|
CPI
|
Oct |
-0.2% m/m; -0.2% y/y |
0.0% m/m; -0.3% y/y |
|
Medium
|
Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.
The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term. |
| 15:00 |
|
Harmonized CPI
|
Oct |
-0.4% m/m; -0.4% y/y |
0.1% m/m; -0.4% y/y |
|
Medium
|
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution. |
| 15:30 |
|
ECB Press Conference
|
|
|
|
|
High
|
The European Central Bank press conference following interest rate announcement. |
| 16:00 |
|
Pending Home Sales
|
Sep |
8.8% m/m; 20.5% y/y |
3.6% m/m |
|
Medium
|
Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery.
The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month. |
