07.07.202511:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Investors see no alternatives

Uncertainty is commonly the enemy of investment, but not in 2025. A double dose of unpredictability – from geopolitics and White House tariffs – hasn't stopped the S&P 500 from hitting multiple record highs. Interestingly, the rally for the broad stock index is far from over. The latest delay in import tariffs has only fueled the global appetite for risk.

The White House's retreat from military support for Europe has heightened geopolitical risks. However, Europe has taken the hint: if you don't help yourself, no one else will. Germany and the EU opened their wallets, with Germany's €500 billion in fiscal stimulus becoming a key driver behind the euro's surge and the outperformance of European and global stock indices relative to the S&P 500 in 2025. Both EuroStoxx 600 and MSCI World still have room to grow – and investors are well aware of it.

S&P 500, EuroStoxx 600, and global equities: trends and drivers

That said, improving demand for equities in Europe and globally is also a positive sign for the US. The American market remains the largest in the world. US-issued bonds account for 40% of the global fixed-income market, and US equities make up a massive 70% of the global MSCI index. In this context, investing in large, liquid, and flexible markets like the US still looks like the best strategy. Yes, Donald Trump's policies bring uncertainty, but markets are slowly adapting.

Many investors are still following the TINA strategy – There Is No Alternative to US securities. The divergence in trading volumes between American and European stocks continues to grow, despite the impressive gains of EuroStoxx 600 in 2025. That said, the S&P 500 has a strong chance to narrow the gap in the second half of the year. A weaker US dollar is likely to hurt the profits of European companies more than it affects American ones.

Trading volumes: EuroStoxx 600 vs. S&P 500

The S&P 500 has shown no signs of concern ahead of July 9, the deadline for the White House's 90-day tariff delay. UBS Global Wealth Management warned that the US imposing the previously announced high tariffs on all trading partners without signed deals could hurt the global risk sentiment. Conversely, an extension of the delay would signal that the White House is reluctant to implement tariffs – a development that could push stock indices even higher.

It appears the administration has opted for the second option. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that tariff hikes would begin only on August 1. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that unless trade agreements are reached by then, the tariffs announced on April 2 would come into force. With the White House's position clarified, uncertainty has eased – and that's bullish for the market. Why shouldn't stock indices keep rallying?

Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500's daily chart shows a continued bullish trend toward the previously announced targets at 6,325 and 6,450. It makes sense to hold long positions opened from 6,051 and add more long positions during pullbacks.