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On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair also failed to produce any notable movements. However, a correction did not start either — the pound held on to its gains and continues to maintain a relatively strong upward trend. There was no macroeconomic background on Friday in either the UK or the U.S., but the overall fundamental backdrop has remained unchanged for six months, giving the dollar plenty of reasons to keep falling in the medium term.
We discuss the causes of the past and future decline of the U.S. currency in almost every article, as they have not changed. Previously, the market feared a trade war, was wary of escalation, and hoped for a truce. Now, it is confident the trade war will continue, does not expect a truce, and does not doubt further escalation. In other words, the trade war factor has only increased its pressure on the dollar. In addition to this factor, there is now the matter of reshuffles within the Federal Reserve, pressure on the Bureau of Statistics, and the possibility of a Ukraine–Russia peace agreement, which would also not favor the dollar. Overall, the U.S. currency's prospects are, to put it mildly, poor.
On the 5-minute chart on Friday, exactly one trading signal formed. At the very start of the U.S. session, the price rebounded from the 1.3420 level and managed to move up about 25 pips by the end of the day. Traders could have made 15–20 pips on this trade, which is quite decent given the day's total volatility of 40 pips.
COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines representing net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. Right now, they have converged again, indicating an approximately equal number of buy and sell positions.
The dollar continues to fall due to Donald Trump's policies, so in principle, the demand of market makers for the pound is not particularly important at this point. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and demand for the dollar will keep falling. According to the latest report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group closed 22,100 BUY contracts and 900 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 21,200 contracts over the reporting week.
In 2025, the pound experienced a sharp rise, primarily due to Trump's policies. Once this factor is removed, the dollar may resume growth, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't matter how quickly the net position in the pound is rising or falling — in the dollar, it is falling in any case, and usually at a faster pace.
On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continues forming an upward trend, while on the daily chart, it has rebounded from the important and strong Senkou Span B line. In our view, the fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the U.S. currency, so in the long term, we expect the continuation of the "2025 trend." Trump continues to take actions that drive the U.S. dollar lower.
For August 11, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3509, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line (1.3363) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3355) may also serve as signal sources. The Stop Loss level should be moved to breakeven if the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals.
On Monday, no important events are scheduled in the UK or the U.S., so volatility may again remain low throughout the day. However, it should be remembered that the overall fundamental backdrop is sharply negative for the dollar, so if we see another drop in the U.S. currency today, it would not be surprising.
We believe the British pound may well continue rising on Monday. The nearest level from which long positions can be opened is 1.3420 — such a signal already formed on Friday. If there are good sell signals, short positions could also be considered, but we would not currently expect a strong decline in the pair.
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