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Bitcoin and Ethereum are going on with their correction, which may last quite a long time. Over the past month and a half Ethereum and Bitcoin have managed a modest recovery, but there are still no signs that the downtrend that began last year has ended. The fundamental backdrop remains weak for the crypto segment, mainly reflected in low spot demand, capital flowing into the artificial-intelligence sector, and the Fed's commitment to achieve 2% inflation, which implies, at minimum, continued tight monetary policy. Thus, we still see no grounds for a sustained rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Meanwhile, it emerged that US President Donald Trump's company, Trump Media & Technology Group, sold $165 million worth of Bitcoin. Experts say this is far from the first sale by Trump's holding. Over the past seven months, it has disposed of a total of 7,300 coins at sale prices well below the average purchase price. Realized losses on the company's bitcoin investments may amount to around $555 million. That raises a rhetorical question: if Trump intends to make the US a global crypto capital, why is his company selling Bitcoin at a loss instead of accumulating it? The conclusion, in our view, is obvious: what many public figures say often differs markedly from reality. Despite Michael Saylor's repeated forecasts of Bitcoin reaching seven-figure levels, his company Strategy changed its stance and is no longer poised to buy "digital gold" with all available cash indefinitely.
Thus, the largest players are beginning to take a more sober view of crypto reality. Bitcoin has been correcting for almost a year. At present, there is no reason to expect a new bull market to begin soon. Geopolitics also remains complicated, and the likelihood of Fed tightening in 2026 still looms over investors (albeit low). Even if the Federal Reserve does not hike the policy rate, there will be no easing this year. That means Bitcoin is losing one of its key support factors.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although that level has, in essence, already been tested. We do not believe the downtrend will end there. The latest bearish FVG was formed in the $68,000–$70,700 area on the daily timeframe, making that zone a POI for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is again leaning toward a drop, as two liquidity grabs have not been confirmed so far and the price may react to the last bearish FVG.
On the daily timeframe, the downtrend that began in August last year continues to form. The key sell pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not think the current downtrend is over, as there are no signs of its completion in either Bitcoin or Ether. At present, a second corrective wave is underway, which could resume as soon as today because a bullish order block has formed and buying liquidity was taken. However, Bitcoin is again "looking down." If Bitcoin resumes its decline, Ethereum is likely to follow whatever patterns appear, since the Bitcoin dominance index remains high.
CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG is Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG stands for Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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