10.08.202613:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders – August 10 (U.S. Session)

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of 1.1560 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The single currency received some support after the Sentix investor confidence indicator exceeded expectations and rose by 0.9 points. Nevertheless, this was a secondary release, so its impact on the market was limited. As a result, the euro's rebound remained moderate and did not develop into a continuation of the broader uptrend. The positive signal from Sentix was sufficient only for a short-term recovery, but without support from more significant economic data, EUR/USD was unable to extend its advance.

The euro is entering the second half of the day in a favorable environment, as no U.S. economic data are expected. In the absence of data, the dollar has no new source of support, and risk assets have a chance to continue rising within the recently established bullish market. This sentiment emerged following the weak employment report, which reduced expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy and deprived the U.S. currency of support, shifting the balance in favor of higher-yielding assets. For the single currency, this creates room for further recovery.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1563 (the green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1579. At 1.1579, I plan to close the position and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro can be expected to rise today in continuation of the trend. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1551 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1563 and 1.1579 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1551 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1530, where I plan to close the position and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a reverse move of 20–25 points from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if the economic data are strong. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1563 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1551 and 1.1530 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take the overbought and oversold zones into account.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market-entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is generally best to remain out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always use stop orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire trading account very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.