18.08.202609:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Brent Heads Toward $92: Third Day of Growth Amid Trump's Threats to Bomb Oman

Brent crude oil continues to gain momentum, approaching $92 per barrel, while WTI has risen above $85 per barrel. The reason behind this is the diminishing prospects for a swift resolution to the war between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with reports of a new attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the year, the benchmark crude has increased by 50% as the conflict has dragged on, hindering energy flows from the Middle East.

A key signal for the market was President Trump's statement that he is not interested in extending the agreement with Tehran, which formally expired on Monday. The parties remain far apart on several issues, including the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is negotiating with Oman regarding the management of this critically important waterway, with Washington not participating in these discussions. Media reports indicate that Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it interfered with the American naval blockade.

The reality of the threats to shipping was confirmed on the same day. The British Maritime Trade Operations reported on Tuesday that a vessel leaving the strait was hit by a projectile of unknown origin, leading to damage in the engine room and the death of a crew member. Authorities are conducting an investigation.

Clearly, Trump's threats toward Oman and his refusal to acknowledge the urgency of a new ceasefire have prompted oil traders to buy, pushing Brent futures above last week's highs. The administration's position has been confirmed by other officials, indicating that Washington is in no rush to end the conflict, which is nearing its sixth month. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the U.S. is playing a long game with the Islamic Republic. At the same time, special envoy Jared Kushner noted that Trump will exercise patience regarding the deal.

An additional benchmark for traders will be the fresh data on U.S. crude inventories. Last week, the data showed an unexpected increase in reserves to a two-month high. Later on Tuesday, the industry group American Petroleum Institute is expected to release its estimates, while official data will be published mid-week.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $86.60. This will allow targeting $89.60, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target is around $92.56. In the event of a decline in oil prices, bears will attempt to take control at $84.40. If successful, breaking the range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $81.50, with the prospect of reaching $78.70.