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US equity indexes closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.66%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 0.30%.
Despite yesterday's gains, US indexes eased today as traders sat on their hands before Nvidia's results, which have become the principal barometer of the entire AI market. Futures on the S&P 500 were down 0.1%, and on the Nasdaq 100, down 0.2%. Treasuries fell across the curve ahead of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for July, ignoring a third straight decline in oil prices. The dollar was broadly unchanged, while gold and bitcoin saw modest moves.
The scale of the event is difficult to overstate. Nvidia's market capitalization exceeds $5 trillion, and the results, to be published after the close, are capable of decisively swinging sentiment in either direction. The market is pricing a 5.4% move in the stock in response to the figures, which are expected to show revenue doubling year-on-year.
Notably, profit figures alone no longer drive the market. The key question is not simply whether Nvidia will beat expectations tonight, but what investors will prioritize: the predictability of medium-erm AI demand and the capital expenditure cycle. That is where Nvidia must not disappoint. In short, the market needs confirmation that the investment cycle will continue, not merely quarterly numbers.
Hours before the earnings release, PCE data is due. Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures data to show a 3.6% year-on-year rise in July, which would be the smallest annual increase in four months. By comparison, June's PCE was 4.1% and was the highest since April 2023, so the expected slowdown would represent a material improvement for the Fed ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday address at Jackson Hole.
A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,679. That will show strength and open the way to $7,698. Controlling $7,718 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite wanes, buyers must defend $7,656. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,633 and open the road to $7,607.
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