Stay 
Trading Conditions
Products
Tools
EUR/USD continued to decline on Tuesday after being rejected from the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1700, moving toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620. A rejection from 1.1620 would favor the euro and a resumption of the upward move toward 1.1700. Consolidation below 1.1620 would allow traders to expect further declines toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1551.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains bullish. The latest completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the latest upward wave broke the previous peak. Geopolitical conditions remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance is currently more important for the dollar, and it remains highly contradictory.
The fundamental backdrop on Tuesday was rather weak and had no impact on either the euro or the US dollar. Thus, trading was very sluggish throughout the day, just as it had been the previous day. Germany released reports on the business climate and GDP, but I cannot say that they impressed traders. The German economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, while the market had expected +0.2% quarter-on-quarter. The business climate index rose to 88.8, compared with a forecast of 87.2. Accordingly, bullish traders could even have launched a new attack yesterday. However, as I mentioned, the reports were not among the most important, so the market did not react to them. Several much more important reports will be released in the United States today. The GDP report is the most important, as it will show whether the US economy slowed even more sharply in the second quarter than indicated by the first estimate. Clearly, if it turns out that the US economy continues to decline, bearish traders will once again retreat from the market. The PCE index and the report on durable goods orders will also be important today.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1649. Thus, the euro's upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1726. The upward trend channel points to a fully developed bullish advance. A strengthening of the US dollar can be expected no earlier than after the price closes below the channel. No emerging divergences are observed today, but the RSI indicator has entered overbought territory (above 80), which suggests that a corrective pullback may occur.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 945 Long positions and 1,876 Short positions. Over the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-one weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and the market's hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 196,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 255,000. The bears are once again taking the lead.
Overall, over the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. Clearly, events of various kinds around the world, which have been abundant in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war ends and then resumes again. The market initially ignored the ceasefire and then ignored the resumption of the war. Thus, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On August 26, the economic calendar contains four entries, all of which will be released at the same time. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of the day on Wednesday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair today is possible if it consolidates above 1.1700 on the hourly chart or rebounds from 1.1620. Sell trades were possible after a rejection from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. These trades can remain open.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.
