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US equity indexes closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose 0.72%, the Nasdaq 100 added 1.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 0.20%.
Earlier today, futures on US stock indexes eased and Treasuries stabilized as traders refrained from large bets ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's address at Jackson Hole. Initial enthusiasm around an AI trade triggered by Nvidia's upbeat guidance has cooled, and Marvell Technology added pressure after tumbling more than 7% following its results.
As noted above, Treasuries absorbed losses after yields ticked up two to three basis points across the curve on inflation and fiscal concerns. The rate-sensitive two-year yield held at 4.23%.
The key question for Warsh's remarks is whether yields will continue to rise. If his speech offers no new framework signals, the move in long bonds could be much stronger. That said, a clear policy cue is not widely expected, given the chair's reluctance to provide forward-guiding estimates. Instead, Warsh may present the initial findings of five Fed working groups on communications, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity and employment, and on inflation-targeting frameworks. These groups were formed soon after he took office, and their final assessments are due by year-end.
The Fed's internal tone remains hawkish. Policymakers left the funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at the last meeting, while futures still price a quarter-point hike by year-end. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid recently said that policy is not constraining the economy, echoing arguments made by ECB hawks in July about accelerating credit.
Elsewhere, market moves were mixed. The yen weakened slightly to about 159.55 per dollar after Tokyo's key inflation gauge accelerated for a third consecutive month. Gold eased to roughly $4,575 an ounce, bitcoin slipped below $80,000, and copper approached a record high. Brent lost 0.5% to about $89.30 per barrel, despite diplomatic hurdles over the Strait of Hormuz; separately, reports that Venezuela is studying plans to exit OPEC attracted investor attention.
A technical picture for the S&P500 suggests that buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,737. That will show strength and open the way to $7,756. Holding $7,786 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, if risk appetite wanes, buyers must defend $7,718. A break there will quickly push the index back to $7,698 and open the road to $7,679.
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