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Bitcoin and Ethereum have made another push higher and are getting closer to a full?fledged bullish trend. We still cannot name the reasons why the new sharp rise in digital assets occurred, although, of course, it all comes down to supply and demand. Demand surged; in turn, crypto assets followed suit. However, why demand increased is hard to say even after the fact. Interestingly, the last two major events for the crypto world were negative. Central banks (notably the Federal Reserve) began tightening monetary policy, which raises demand for safe assets like bank deposits and government bonds. The Clarity Act, a bill intended to regulate digital?asset investing in the US, again failed to pass through Congress. By logic, the crypto market should have fallen rather than produce a new explosive rally. However, as we warned earlier, pumps don't need reasons, and there is no logic to them.
Meanwhile, billionaire investor Tim Draper criticized Apple and Meta for their unwillingness to invest in "digital gold." Draper said that large tech companies could buy Bitcoin and other digital assets to protect their capital from devaluation and financial instability. He also warned that rising government spending and public debt threaten the stability of the dollar. Current US fiscal policy could lead to hyperinflation and force the Federal Reserve to turn on the printing presses. He added that the higher federal funds rate will increase borrowing costs, reduce purchasing power, and create financial hardship for Americans.
According to Draper, the only real rescue is Bitcoin. He argues Bitcoin should not be viewed simply as a volatile investment instrument but as protection against inflation. The expert believes holding savings in crypto is far more reliable than in commercial banks, and that quantum computers in the future could break traditional financial systems much faster than they could break the Bitcoin network. However, Meta, Microsoft, and Apple are not rushing to build crypto reserves, which frustrates Draper. Notably, the largest tech companies in the world likely know what they are doing. Draper himself is a Bitcoin backer and investor, so this is another opinion from an expert with a personal stake in the asset's rise. Naturally, in his view, everyone should buy Bitcoin so the asset continues to grow and reward early investors.
Bitcoin displays all the signs of the start of a new bull trend. This trend begins, as usual, with a pump that has no concrete or clear reasons. The Federal Reserve has not started cutting interest rates, and the Clarity Act was not passed. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may decline, as the price has reacted to a bearish FVG. We also note for traders that the current breakout beyond the daily consolidation channel may be a deviation — yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin can still fall back to $57,500. On the 4?hour chart, long positions can be considered locally from the most recent bullish FVG; however, we currently favor a corrective scenario.
On the daily timeframe, the technical picture for Ether changed completely in just a few days. Ethereum is now looking toward a new uptrend. However, traders should base decisions on the weekly chart, where Ethereum is heading toward $4,800 — the upper band of a five?year sideways channel. On the daily chart, the first bearish FVG did not produce a significant price reaction; the next FVG might. Bitcoin likewise filled the nearest bearish FVG, so both cryptocurrencies may begin a correction in the near term. The recent rise in digital assets has been driven solely by a pump. There are currently more fundamental reasons for a drop in both cryptocurrencies than for further growth.
CHOCH is a change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity means traders' Stop?Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG stands for a Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG is an Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB means an Order Block. A candle on which a market maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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