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The price test at 1.1363 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro, which rose only 10 pips.
Yesterday, for the euro, the day was dominated by US data, and the market reaction was mixed. Private-sector hiring accelerated in the US, with ADP adding 90,000 jobs in September, giving the dollar an initial reason to rise. Consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, the strongest month since March 2025, which also supported the dollar. The contrast came from the core PCE index, which rose only 0.2% versus 0.3% expected, and July was revised down. Year over year, the indicator stayed at 3.0%, exactly matching forecasts. I believe this divergence between strong hiring and muted core inflation explains the drop in odds for an October rate move to 36%.
The first half of today promises to be busy for the euro, and a bullish scenario is demanding. Traders must evaluate three data blocks — Germany's manufacturing PMI for September, the eurozone aggregate manufacturing PMI, and then the unemployment rate. For a positive EUR/USD reaction, it would be best if all data beat economists' forecasts rather than only some components. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will close the morning block, and his tone can amplify or negate the macro effect. In my view, the market will look for overall confirmation of eurozone resilience rather than a single strong print. I expect the aggregate of factors to determine whether the euro can hold gains through the European session.
For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.1335 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1360. Plan to exit at 1.1360 and sell EUR/USD on a reversal, expecting 30–35 pips from the entry. Expect euro growth only after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and only beginning its rise from that level.
Scenario 2: Also buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1316 while MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward 1.1335 and 1.1360.
Scenario 1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1316 (red line on the chart). Target 1.1291, where I plan to exit and immediately buy the reverse, expecting a 20–25 pip countermove. Pressure will return on poor data. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario 2: Also sell if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1335 while MACD is in the overbought area. This would limit the upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to 1.1316 and 1.1291.
Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line – approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, since further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders,, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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