05.10.202609:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Rates no longer sole focus

The backdrop for risk assets remains fairly strong. The Nasdaq 100 closed Friday at a record high, the MSCI Asia-Pacific rose by about 1%, Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed by 2%, and Taiwan Semiconductor added 3%. December Brent eased by roughly 0.5% to $101.75 after Saudi Arabia cut prices on its baseline grade for Asia.

The chain is clear: cheaper oil reduces inflation fears and calms equity markets. The theoretical winners are energy importers such as Europe and Japan. US labor data also supported equities: nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September versus a 12-month average of 45,000, unemployment ticked to 4.2%, and hourly wages increased by 0.1% m/m. Money markets now price in less than a 20% chance of an October Fed hike, whereas in mid-September, odds for an immediate hike were 85–90%. The market concluded that the soft jobs report reduces the risk of further tightening in the United States.

The bond market remains an important part of the backdrop, and the situation there has only partially improved. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped by one basis point to 5.26%, but it was 4.96% on September 14 — a rise of more than 30 basis points in three weeks. For months, everything boiled down to rates, rates, and more rates; now the market can finally take a breather. The bond sell-off was driven by inflation fears, large fiscal spending, and corporate borrowing to finance AI, amplified by technical flows such as hedging and speculators' stop-loss orders. That pressure has eased somewhat.

Technically, the S&P 500 chart indicates that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,718. That would confirm renewed upside and open the path to $7,737. Maintaining control above $7,756 would further strengthen the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers must defend $7,698. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,656 and open the way to $7,631.