13.10.202619:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – October 13

Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1185 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

German inflation data came in line with expectations, but the euro still recovered some of its losses. The final figures confirmed that consumer prices in Germany rose by 3.3% year over year in September and by 0.6% month over month. The figures matched both expectations and the preliminary estimates, so there was no clear reason for the euro to rise. The acceleration was once again driven by energy prices, primarily gasoline at filling stations and heating oil. This is generally a positive signal for the euro, as high inflation strengthens the case for the ECB to maintain a hawkish stance.

Later, the US will release the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, with a previous reading of 98.7 and a forecast of 98.0, as well as existing home sales, which are expected to come in at 3.96 million, compared with 3.98 million previously. Meanwhile, FOMC members Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, and Susan M. Collins will deliver speeches. I believe that a combination of neutral data and cautious remarks from Fed officials will allow the euro to maintain its rebound. However, if Barkin and Collins support Hammack's hawkish stance, pressure on the pair will return, and small-business data are unlikely to change that.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1188 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1208. At 1.1208, I plan to close the position and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro may rise today if US data are weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1175 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. The price could rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1188 and 1.1208.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1175 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1158, where I intend to close the position and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move back from that level. Selling pressure could return at any time. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.1188 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. The price could decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1175 and 1.1158.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large position sizes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally losing strategy for an intraday trader.