15.10.202609:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Has Recouped Almost All Losses, but Bets on Fed Hikes Remain the Main Burden

Today, gold rose as US Treasury yields fell, with investors seeking safety in government bonds after strong inflation data boosted Federal Reserve-hike bets and sparked an equity sell-off. The metal gained up to 1.1% and traded near $4,142 per ounce, recovering almost all of the previous session's losses. Silver rose about 1% to $56.15 (after trading at $59.20 the day before); platinum and palladium also advanced.

US Treasury yields jumped sharply on Wednesday after headline US CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month — the strongest monthly reading since April. On Thursday yields largely retraced because the technology stock sell-off pushed investors into safe-haven assets. That roller-coaster in yields effectively erased the earlier spike. Gold benefits from lower yields—it pays no interest and typically rises when yields fall—while those who bet on further increases in bond yields lost out.

However, headwinds for the metal remain. Traders have increased bets that hotter-than-expected inflation will force the Fed to raise rates again, possibly as early as the end of this month. That is bad news for gold because more expensive borrowing makes the metal less attractive. Gold has already lost more than 20% since the US–Iran conflict began in late February, which disrupted energy supplies, fuelled global inflation and prompted central-bank tightening.

Wednesday's headline CPI rise was driven mainly by higher fuel costs, but core price pressure also strengthened. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee called the data "disappointing" and warned that AI-related infrastructure spending could also overheat the economy. All eyes now turn to Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Investors will be looking for last-minute policy clues before the Fed enters its blackout period ahead of the October 27–28 meeting.

Ahead of Warsh's remarks, gold will likely trade around $4,145, and a move above $4,200 would be possible only if the Fed chair adopts a dovish tone and oil continues to fall. If Warsh signals a hawkish line, yields will resume climbing, and Fed-hike bets will firm, putting renewed pressure on gold. Given persistent inflation and elevated energy prices, I expect safe-haven demand to slow gold's decline at best rather than reverse it.

Technical picture — gold

Buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,192 to target $4,249, above which a breakout will be difficult. The furthest upside target is the $4,304 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124; if they succeed, a range break would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold down to $4,062 with the prospect of extending to $4,047.