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Yesterday, Trump signed a memorandum imposing customs duty on imports of goods worth 50 billion USD from China, which the US suspects to have arisen from the theft of intellectual patents from the US. China did not remain indebted and announced the introduction of duties on imports of some US goods for around $ 3 billion last night. Investors' nervousness was strengthened by the decision to leave McMaster's McMaster national security adviser, which heralds chaos in international politics. Not only that already appointed John Bolton is the third person in this position within 14 months, his views do not portend anything good. Bolton is a fierce opponent of North Korea, not once opting for a preventive attack on the country. A few years ago, he also spoke strongly about Iran, opposing nuclear agreements and seeing the exit only in armed intervention. It is not surprising, therefore, that the theme of China's Asian markets dropped, for the theme of North Kore the USD / JPY drops and for the theme of Iran - soars Crude Oil.
Trade wars and geopolitical risks are a toxic mixture for risk appetite, which already made Wall Street to drop 3.0%, Nikkei to drop 4.5% and made Gold to rally. JPY and CHF are the first choices for investors as a safe haven. The USD suffers because the US is at the center of events, and additionally, there is a distaste after the Fed's interest rate decision. If this climate continues, in the end the AUD, NOK, NZD and CAD will be overestimated, as well as emerging markets currencies, including PLN.
Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market rallied toward the technical resistance at the level of 66.69 but was capped at the level of 65.71 and since then the price has tested the technical support at the level of 64.26, bounced and got back to the trading range. The market conditions are overbought now, so if the bears will find the strength to push the prices again through the level of 64.26, then the drops might extend to the level of 63.65.
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