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Technical outlook:
We have been vouching for a potential larger degree top in place in GBP/USD since mid April 2018 when 1.4376 highs were formed. Since then the pair has unfolded into 5 waves seen on smaller timeframes, breaking below the trend line support as seen here. Please note that GBP/USD is trading well below its critical past support at 1.3700 levels. The above criteria confirms that medium term trend for GBP/USD has reversed lower already and bears should remain in control going forward. Selling on rallies will remain a safe trading strategy going forward. Looking into the wave counts, a larger degree wave (4) seems to be terminated at 1.4375 levels and subsequent drop through sub 1.3460 levels has unfolded into 5 waves (impulse) forming wave 1 of the resumed downtrend. If this count holds to be true, GBP/USD is now expected to produce a counter trend corrective rally that may push prices at least towards 1.3800 levels or upto 1.4000 levels going forward.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders might want to go long with tight stop below the 1.3450 levels. Conservative traders may look to sell again on rallies through 1.4000 levels.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for ECB president Draghi's speech in Frankfurt at 08:00 AM EST.
Good luck!
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