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On Monday, the 13th of August 2018, the event calendar is light in important data releases, only Gross Domestic Product data form Italy is to be posted. No scheduled speeches as well. Holiday season at its peak.
USD/TRY analysis for 13/08/2018:
The crisis in Turkey is a bad sign for the entire global economy because there is a real risk of contagion. This is a phenomenon that occurs during crises. It consists in the fact that the collapse of one market moves to other, even if there are not enough reasons for it, and the economy is not correlated.
The reaction is already visible in the currencies of developing countries. The PLN and CZK have been weakening since Thursday, the USD has gone up by 10 cents. The South African Rand lost about 10% of the value. In South Africa, there are many factors that can cause rapid declines, but it is the situation in Turkey that has become an igniter.
The International Monetary Fund has for some time warned that there is a global risk for EM countries. The main blame for this is the trade war between the US and China and the rising dollar. Now, these pessimistic expectations may have come true. In the meantime, the People's Bank of China raised the USD/CNY reference rate to 6.8629, the highest level since May 2017.
Let's now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at
Since Thursday, the Turkish lira weakened against the dollar by over 30%. USDTRY was still around 5.25 on Wednesday, which meant a zone of historical highs. The market is still skyrocketing towards the level of 7.000 and the current rate is around 6.8661. The nearest technical support is seen at the levels of 6.70, 6,41 and 5.43. The most important is still seen down below at the level of 4,97 - 5.00. Nevertheless, with this kind of price movements, all technical supports might not be enough to stop the price from falling as the bias is still to the upside. Without the direct Central Bank of Turkey interwention, the sky is the limit now.
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