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EUR/JPY has been consolidating below 125.00 area after an impulsive bounce off the 121.00 support area. EUR has been weighed down by the BREXIT uncertainty and worse-than-expected economic reports which lead to EUR's weakness against JPY.
EUR has been hurt by the recently published economic reports which did not support the impulsive bullish momentum further above 125.00 area. European Union Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici recently stated that the risk of a no deal BREXIT increased in last few weeks and it was up to the British to tell the EU how they propose to break it. EUR is currently facing unclear market sentiment ahead of BREXIT. Yo make things worse, lackluster economic reports are to blame for EUR weakness. Both the EU and the UK are not interested in a no deal BREXIT, which could derail economic growth in the future. Moreover, the European Union may reject the Italian plan to reimburse retail savers, hit by retail bank rescues which might also hit a rock bottom for EUR in the coming days.
On the JPY side, today BOJ Policy Rate was published unchanged as expected at -0.10%. The Bank of Japan cuts its inflation forecasts today but maintains its massive stimulus program. Governor Kuroda warns of the growing risk for the domestic economy from trade protectionism and faltering global demand. Rising pressure from US-China Trade War is adding tensions for Japan and undermining years of efforts by policy makers for sustainable growth. Despite Japan's intention to use fiscal spending to stem an economic slowdown, there are still risks involved. However, Kuroda stated that Japan's economy is rising. The policymaker expects Japan's economy to grow till fiscal 2020 with proper sustainability.
Meanwhile, amid downbeat economic data from the eurozone and unclear market sentiment EUR is expected to be dominated by JPY in the coming days. Despite risks emerging in Japan, the optimism and target GDP growth projected by Kuroda till fiscal 2020 are going to attract the market sentiment, thus causing further bearish momentum in the pair.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been correcting itself below 125.00 area which is recently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance. The price is currently having bearish confluence and expected to push lower towards 123.50 and later towards 120.00 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 125.00-50 resistance area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 119.00, 120.00, 123.50
RESISTANCE: 125.00-50, 127.50
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
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