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EUR/USD has climbed as high as 1.1007 today, but it has failed to stabilize above the 1.1 psychological level. The pair has rallied as the USDX has dropped like a rock in the last days. I've said in my previous analysis that this scenario is likely to happen. It remains to see what will happen in the upcoming days because the price is trading right below a major confluence area. A failure to pass above it will announce a sell-off on EUR/USD.
The US data could be crucial today, some poor numbers will force the dollar to drop deeper versus all major currencies and not only versus the euro. The outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish on the short term, only a reversal pattern around 1.1 will send the price down.
I said yesterday that EUR/USD is expected to jump higher if the US data disappoints. The figures have come in mixed and the pair has registered an amazing increase. EUR/USD has increased by 126 pips in yesterday's session and now it seems determined to resume the bullish momentum.
A valid breakout above the upper median line (uml), 50% retracement level and above the 1.1000 psychological level will signal a further increase towards 61.8% and towards the upside warning line (wl1). Another major upside target is seen at 1.1111 level. If USDX extends its sell-off, EUR/USD will approach and reach the mentioned resistance levels soon.
The current upside movement was confirmed after the price had closed the gap down and after the impressive rally above the lower median line (lml).
Is not advised to take a long position at this moment because we could have only a false breakout above the 50% level, 1.1 and above the upper median line (uml). However, in case of a valid breakout, if the price closes above these levels and if it consolidates, we will be able to consider going long.
A false breakout, pin bar or bearish engulfing above the mentioned upside obstacles will signal a potential drop towards 38.2% level or lower, you should be careful today because the US data will bring some volatility in the market.
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